Popcorn

"Of course life is bizarre, the more bizarre it gets, the more interesting it is. The only way to approach it is to make yourself some popcorn and enjoy the show.”- David Gerrold


I appreciate technological advancements, in theory. In practice, I am a skeptic. If I have something that works, I am not much inclined to reach out for something that claims to work better. I held on to my Blackberry until the bitter end. The combination of observing all of the things my wife could do with her Samsung smart phone and the sheer humiliation of having small children point and laugh when they saw me using the Blackberry, finally pushed me over the edge last year and I got a MotoX. It’s still not the fanciest device out there and it’s not cool. And I use it mostly for the same stuff for which I used the Blackberry. But, now I am only 5 years behind the techno-curve, not 15.

I jumped on the iPAD several years ago. I didn’t have anything else that could do what the iPAD could do, so I wanted one. It’s now an old, old iPAD and people keep telling me I should upgrade. This one does what I want done, I am happy. I will wear it out, then upgrade to something that has probably been around for at least two years.

I was early on the e-readers. Bought one of the first Kindles. Still using it. See no need to change. It does what I want done. Leave me alone. I still do not download music to my phone. I just don’t see a need for it. I have music on my computer and in my home. When I go on a long-walk or work-out, I don’t want the distraction. I don’t need music playing in the background. When I listen to music, I really listen to music.

My wife is more easily bored than I am and she’s not a big reader. So when we travel, she wants to watch TV shows and movies on her iPad. She has a Netflix account and goes on about all of their great programming. I don’t like watching shows on the iPad or even on my computer. And, I wasn’t sold on connecting streaming video to our big screen TV. But, my wife knows how to work me, so she starts sending me links to the various types of devices which are available to “easily and affordably” connect ones television to the internet.

I finally gave in and purchased a Roku 3 device. Little did my wife know that she would create a monster. I am now binge watching Orange Is The New Black and House of Cards. I’ve started a half dozen other series and will eventually binge on them once I get caught up on OITNB and HOC. And now that I can get You Tube on the big screen, I can watch my favorite scenes from my favorite movies. I mean who doesn’t like the “Ecstasy of Gold” scene from The Good, The Bad and The Ugly (other than my wife)?

I remember many years ago, my mother resisting the gift of a microwave oven. She had a perfectly good electric toaster oven for warming up leftovers and the microwave seemed dangerous and unnecessary. What finally won her over was microwave popcorn. She and her dog loved microwave popcorn. Once popcorn opened the door, she embraced her microwave and it became her go to appliance.

Those who develop technology and more importantly those who market it should take note. If you want to sell to the mainstream; find out what they like….then give it to them. Not bad advice, no matter what you’re selling.

The Game Is Changing….Demographics & Tipping Points

“The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire.”
― Malcolm Gladwell, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference


Technology tends to change the game over a relatively short period of time. We can measure the changes in months and years. Demographic changes tend to be measured in decades and generations. However, the IMPACT of changing Demographics tends to hit quickly and significantly once those changes reach a tipping point. My sense is that we have reached “tipping points” on multiple fronts and these “tipping points” will have radical impact on how we produce, distribute and consume goods and services in the future. Technology may indeed be the great “enabler” when it comes to many of these changes, but the motivation is very much human.

So what are some of these changes or tipping points that are impacting transportation and logistics? One that clearly jumps to mind is the shortage of truck drivers. This is the result of a long cycle of changing trends, demographics and regulations. There are literally dozens of reasons why we do not have enough truck drivers. Some are unique to trucking and some are larger issues which also explain why we don’t have enough skilled tradesmen (or tradeswomen for that matter). They include things like fewer kids growing up on farms and having early exposure to equipment and manual labor; or the push for all kids to go to college and the devaluation of “blue collar” careers; or the perception of trucks being bad for the environment; or just considering the pay as being too low for the required time and effort. Tighter regulations which the society has chosen to impose for safety reasons have an impact. Lower birth rates within the traditional truck driver demographic have an impact. The list could go on forever. Bottom-line, there have a been a multitude of fundamental changes which have resulted in a critical shortage of truck drivers.

Another example of a major tipping point is the growth in e-commerce retail. What Amazon is doing to retail is a game-changer for transportation and logistics service providers. Products are suddenly purchased and distributed much differently. If your business is built around DC to store delivery, and if the product can be effectively sold and delivered via e-commerce, your business is in trouble. On the other hand, if you are in the final mile B to C delivery space, opportunity abounds. But so does risk depending on how you’ve built your business.

Changing demographics tend to drive changes in politics which in turn create major changes for businesses. For transportation companies, a political environment that tends to be pro-union and anti-independent contractor is bad news. If we continue down this path through a couple of more election cycles, the transportation system as we know it will be completely changed. We could well end up paying more money for poorer service. There will be winners and losers and if you are not prepared to play the “new game” you will lose.

And whatever your business model, you will need some people involved. Which again brings us back to changing demographics. I’ve commented about this before in discussing Millennials in the workforce. You simply cannot manage people the way you did twenty years ago. It doesn’t mean that this New Generation Employee is bad. In many ways, they are better and given all of the other changes going on in the world, very likely to be more productive over the long run. But they are different. They think about work-life balance differently. They think about employee-company loyalty differently. They think about rewards differently. They think about communication and feedback differently.

The game has changed. Learn to play the new game or cash in your chips.

The Game Is Changing….Technology

Last week I wrote that we were entering a new and different world when it comes to doing business. There are fundamental changes occurring that are forcing transportation and logistics service providers to adapt or else. One of the most significant game changers is technology. For those of us old enough to remember what it was like doing business before computers and cell phones, today’s information and communication capabilities are truly amazing. I have been fortunate enough to sort of ride along on the wave of technological advancements and I cannot imagine doing business the way we used to.

Back in the mid-60’s, Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, wrote a paper stating that essentially computing power would double every 2 years. It became known as Moore’s Law and has turned out to be a fairly accurate prediction. Some even say that the “doubling cycle” is only 18 months. There are various opinions regarding how long this exponential explosion can go on. In theory, at some point, we reach diminishing returns. But certainly, in my adult lifetime, Moore’s Law seems to hold true. As a result, I think it’s fair to say that we humans are now trying to catch up to technology. What can be done with technology is way out there, just waiting for application and adaptation. If you can imagine it, it’s possible. In fact, it’s likely to become reality within your lifetime. At some point, the discussion turns to ethical considerations about the creation, development and maintenance of life forms. I’m not going there. Just read Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein.

Interestingly enough, the way technology is being used these days in managing the supply chain can be somewhat “Frankenstein-ish.” And when you hear the horror stories associated with “system conversions” or “new installs”, there is a tendency to step back and say maybe we’re trying to do too much with technology and let’s just get “back to the basics”. Sorry, you can’t go back. The basics are on the move and you better keep pace. As noted above, we humans are trying to catch up to technology. No question, sometimes application design is poor, training is lacking and implementation/execution fails. But it’s the human element that is failing here, not the technology.

I would say that most transportation and logistics companies would do well to stay close to the leading edge when it comes to technology. But, let other industries or companies with deep pockets do the pioneering. This is still a fragmented, low-margin business and the only thing worse than expensive new technology is expensive new technology that doesn’t deliver . The key is to constantly examine every function in your business and figure out how you can do it better. Don’t think technology first. Think process and improvement and how you can do it better. If it takes technology to get there, then determine if is it economically feasible and do you have the people who can and will use it? Technology is not the end all. But if you fail to take advantage of what’s out there, you will lose the game.

The Game Is Changing

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”- George Bernard Shaw


So we have reached the half way mark of 2015. As I speak with clients and candidates I keep getting the same question: “What are you seeing out there?” I think I get it more often when we are in a so-so economic environment. When things are really bad or really good, I don’t get that question as often. Everyone sort of knows what’s going on. For the past couple of years no one is sure what’s going on, so I get that question a lot. When we think things are getting better, they turn for the worse. Just about the time we think it’s all going in the tank, we see it turn the other way
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I would say that one word describes how most of us feel about the economy…UNCOMFORTABLE. And more so than normal. I’ve been around a long-time and business is cyclical. There are short-term cycles and long-term cycles. So anyone who runs a business understands the phrase: “This too shall pass”. For the most part things are never as good or as bad as they seem to be at the moment. Every day is a battle, you win some and you lose some. Just showing up and surviving is not a bad thing. And if you’re really good at what you do, with a little luck or help from above, you might just prosper.

But it is never easy. What’s my competition up to? What do the customers think about us? What do our employees think about us? How can we become a better company? Answering those questions today is more challenging than ever. Experience can be a great teacher, but when the game changes your experience can work against you. And when your experience-driven answers to the hard questions turn out to be wrong, then what?

I think this is where we are in 2015. It’s true for the global economy. It certainly seems to be the case when it comes to political, social and environmental issues. And it is definitely where we find ourselves in the transportation/logistics business. What’s happening now is the result of more than just economic cycles and competitive pressures. The game is changing and changing rapidly. Advancements in technology and changing demographics are turning the world upside down. Business models that were highly successful only ten or fifteen years ago are now dinosaurs. 2000 doesn’t seem all that long ago. But, 2015 is a brand new world and if you are running your business a lot like you did in 2000, you are going out of business. You may not know it yet, but you are going out of business.

In the coming weeks, we’ll look closer at the “game-changers” which will determine the winners and the losers of the future. But back to the original question, when asked, “What are you seeing out there?” My answer has become, “It’s a whole different ball game.”

Rooted in Evil

“For we do not wrestle against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the cosmic powers over this present darkness, against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly places.”- Ephesians 6:12

In the aftermath of the mass murders in Charleston, a lot of the discussion has been about racism and guns in America. And these are subjects worthy of discussion. They are major factors in what happened in Charleston. But, the core of what happened there is rooted in EVIL. In today’s world we are reluctant to talk about evil and when we do talk about evil it tends to be an adjective not a noun. Actions may be described as evil, but we tend to relate them to some sort of cause and effect process. If we can figure out “the cause” then we can remedy “the effect”. If we are forced to admit that real EVIL exists and is “a thing”, then we must move from the physical world to the meta-physical world and ultimately outside of ourselves as the shapers and creators of “our world”.

I tend to think that it was not just coincidence that Dylann Roof chose a church and a bible study group as the place to make his “statement”. Through the journey of his young life, he made choices that led him to this moment. Were there other influences? Of course, and they may go deep into his DNA. If he had grown up in a country without such an awful history of racism and less access to handguns, might there have been a different outcome? Perhaps. But where evil is at work, another madman in America would have likely taken his place. And Dylann Roof might be out there doing some other horrible thing somewhere else on the planet.

Theologians and philosophers have argued over free will vs determinism for centuries. And there are many who would argue that what happened in Charleston was “predestined” or somehow in line with the mysterious, unknowable will of God. I tend to believe that we all play the hand we are dealt and God in his Providence offers a way out. He is more generous and shows more mercy to some, but we are all given the choice.

“God created things which had free will. That means creatures which can go wrong or right. Some people think they can imagine a creature which was free but had no possibility of going wrong, but I can't. If a thing is free to be good it's also free to be bad. And free will is what has made evil possible. Why, then, did God give them free will? Because free will, though it makes evil possible, is also the only thing that makes possible any love or goodness or joy worth having. A world of automata -of creatures that worked like machines- would hardly be worth creating. The happiness which God designs for His higher creatures is the happiness of being freely, voluntarily united to Him and to each other in an ecstasy of love and delight compared with which the most rapturous love between a man and a woman on this earth is mere milk and water. And for that they've got to be free. Of course God knew what would happen if they used their freedom the wrong way: apparently, He thought it worth the risk” – C.S. Lewis

McKinney

"Money Magazine ranked McKinney as the #1 Best Place to Live in America! McKinney has been featured in the top 5 on the list since 2010. Money editors and writers look at data about employment, schools, crime and safety, and also evaluate each city’s overall quality of life to determine the rankings" - mckinneytexas.org

I live in North Texas, just 40 miles up the road from McKinney where earlier this month some white folks got crossways with some black folks. It happened in a nice neighborhood where teenagers were having an end of school year pool party. A black girl, who was a resident, was hosting the party and there was a mixed crowd in attendance. Apparently the DJ tweeted that it was an open party and pretty soon it was overflowing with kids and noise and the general mischief in which teenagers tend to engage. It was a neighborhood pool and apparently some white women who were not there for the party took offense to the shenanigans and pretty soon there were racial slurs followed by some hair-pulling and face-slapping. The police were called in and things escalated quickly. One policeman in particular was pretty riled up and aggressively started rounding up and cuffing black kids. A young black girl objected loudly and when given the chance to walk away objected even louder and ended up pinned, face-down on the ground with the police officer’s knees in her back. A couple of young black males moved toward the officer and he drew his gun. Other officers gained control of him and the situation. Thankfully, no one was shot.

McKinney is a nice place. A growing suburb on the northern edge of the DFW Metroplex with great schools, beautiful neighborhoods and a diverse citizenry. One does not expect a “racial incident” to occur in McKinney. Certainly not in one of their nicer neighborhoods. But it did. And now everyone wants action and answers. The police officer has resigned. There have been protests. But, for the most part the community has come together and handled it the right way. Black and white leaders, mostly ministers, have taken the lead. This is the Bible belt and, believe it or not, a lot of Christians see Christians and not color. McKinney will be alright.

The media has milked “the incident” for all it’s worth. It’s just what they do and who can blame them. As long as we pay attention and the story gets “views”, the story will be considered newsworthy. And, I am inclined to say that we should pay attention. The fact is that “the incident” was not in “the hood”, it was in “the neighborhood”. The kind of place that used to be all white. Twenty years ago, this doesn’t happen. The black girl doesn’t live in this neighborhood and therefore doesn’t host a party at the community pool. The music is probably still too loud and some of the teenagers are probably out-of-control. Twenty years ago or today, some might be drunk or high. Yesterday or today, if adults aren’t watching the boys and girls are doing stuff they shouldn’t be doing with each other. Twenty years ago, the party is probably just about as bad as it is today except that it’s all white kids. (And Twitter isn’t around to facilitate inviting a bunch of un-invited guests. ) Teenagers tend to do crazy stuff. Mix hormones with alcohol or drugs and it only gets crazier. Happened in my day and it hasn’t gotten better since then.

But now we have “kids of color” in the picture and it’s complicated. Everyone sees color, more so if you were born sometime in the last century. And if you are in law enforcement you notice color and a lot of other sights and sounds that through experience tell you to be on guard. Is it profiling? Duh...yeah. Is it fair? Nope. But it’s there and we must deal with it. And the good news is that, to a significant degree, we are dealing with it. A lot of other McKinney police officers were there at the pool party. All but one of them demonstrated levels of patience and restraint that were admirable. Most of our law enforcement officers “get it” and go out of their way to do it the right way.

But it only takes one to create an incident. Even in places like McKinney, Texas. Then it falls back on all police officers. And at some point, being in law enforcement just isn’t worth it. Especially, for the really good people who might make the best police officers. We’ve pretty much gutted the teaching profession and now we are well on our way with law enforcement. Yes we need to continue the conversation about police-race relations. But we better start a conversation about supporting and respecting those we hire to enforce our laws, the vast majority of whom are well-deserving of such.

Land Of The Free

One of the big news items this week, perhaps the biggest news item this week, has been Caitlyn Jenner. The Vanity Fair cover shot pops up with every click. Check on the weather…there’s Caitlyn. How’s the market doing…there’s Caitlyn. Did Tiger break 80….there’s Caitlyn.

I guess it’s news worthy up to a point. I remember Bruce Jenner and his accomplishments as a gold medal winning Olympic decathlete. He was a “pretty man” and the women loved him. He tried his hand at acting and was really bad. But he had some success as a race car driver and a businessman. Eventually, Jenner’s celebrity star brightened even more as a member of the Kardashian circus. And now we have Caitlyn. As the saying goes, you just can’t make this stuff up.

Five years before Bruce/Caitlyn was born, thousands of young men (most of them younger than Bruce when he won the gold in 1976), hit the beaches of Normandy. A lot of them died. A lot of them were seriously wounded. All of them and their families and the world, were forever changed. My dad was there as a member of the 101st Airborne. They missed the beach party having dropped in behind the lines a few hours earlier. A lot of them died there, too.

If you talk to combat veterans, they will tell you that they fought to survive, fought for each other and fought to get back home. But, they also know that they fought for a reason, for a cause. WWII veterans will tell you that the cause was Freedom. I doubt that any of them could have imagined a world in the future so free that a male Olympic champion might opt to become a transgendered female cover girl. We can debate the morality of Jenner’s decision. But if the Nazis had won or if Islam ruled the world, Jenner would not have the freedom to choose other than to choose death. Our world may be going to “hell in a hand basket” but that just comes with the territory we call freedom.

In today’s political world, my dad would have been a libertarian. His philosophy was live and let live, but don’t step on my toes. He was the Clint Eastwood character in the movie, Grand Torino, wielding a shotgun and warning the punks to “Get off my lawn”. But he would have just looked at Caitlyn Jenner and muttered something like “to each his own” and “it’s a free country”. And, he would ask why we are more interested in Caitlyn Jenner this week than we are in remembering and honoring those brave young men who stepped up and did what they had to do back in 1944 on the 6th day of June.