Is Anybody Out There?

The ratio of unemployed persons to job openings is now down to 1.1, meaning there are 1.1 unemployed people per job opening. There are currently over 6 million job openings in this country. Just as a point of reference there were less than 2.2 million in July 2009. Now you can pick at the data noting that we’re not counting all of the potential workforce. That we have a lot of drop-outs. Or that the “job opening” data is questionable. That many of these openings are not really “open”, that some companies are always looking for certain types of people, but that doesn’t mean they will hire.

OK, so the data isn’t perfect. But it is relative and going from 2.2 million job openings to over 6.0 million means something. Back in July 2009 when we had just under 2.2 million job openings, there were over 14.5 million unemployed people looking for work, a 6.6 to 1 ratio. Today’s ratio of 1.1 to 1 tells us there are around 6.6 million people looking for work. In July 2009 the number of employed people was just over 139 million. Today that number is 155 million. So we’ve covered 9 million of the “out of work and looking” from July 2009 and added another 7 million to the employment roles. What’s even more interesting is that the labor participation rate hasn’t changed much. In July 2009 59.3% of the population was employed. Today it’s 60.4%. The “civilian” labor force participation rate in July 2009 was actually higher (65.5%) that it is today (63.0%).

Slice it anyway you want to and the message is the same, we don’t have enough qualified workers to fill all of the jobs that need to be filled. Unemployment is still personal and if you are among the unemployed, especially the long-term unemployed, all of these “job openings” aren’t doing you much good. There are a lot of reasons why some folks can’t get a job. Some can be overcome, some cannot and some are against the law. Life isn’t fair and neither is the job market even when we pass laws to make it so. It is a competition and when you are unable to compete or are not allowed to compete, the result is the same…unemployment. But that aside, the reality is that there are simply not enough “employable” people for the jobs that need to be filled where they need to be filled.

I mentioned a few weeks ago that the generation on the way up is significantly larger than the generation on the way out: 150 million Gen X and Gen Z replacing 80 million Baby Boomers. This will make a positive difference in some job markets. But we are still likely to face significant shortages in skilled trades and the no-collar/blue-color labor market. In the mean time, employers will be forced to adjust: increase compensation, substitute capital (technology) for labor, re-design jobs to make them more attractive or move the work to where the workers are. Things will change. They must.

Easter 2018

Easter hasn’t always been the most important holiday for me. Even though I grew up in and around the church and “got saved” when I was only ten years old, Easter didn’t win, place or show when it came to holidays. Christmas was THE number one, by a wide margin. Second was the 4th of July. I loved fireworks. Still do. Fireworks, watermelon and homemade ice cream. Doesn’t get much better than that. And in my heavy drinking days, lots of cold beer. Then there was Thanksgiving. Football, great food, cocktails and falling asleep in the recliner. And New Year’s Day. More football and as I got older, more drinking. Just living the American dream.

Easter was always there, of course, bringing up the rear. Running neck and neck with Labor Day. As a little kid, the whole Easter Bunny/Candy Egg deal got my attention. As I grew older and started to understand what Easter was really all about, it became sort of depressing. Christ Is Risen, He Is Risen Indeed. Woo-hoo…now can we get back to living life? I didn’t say that. I probably didn’t even think that. But that’s how it turned out. Easter was always a time when this wayward backslider would say he was going to clean up his act and go back to church. But, then life would get in the way and nothing changed. Just another year older and farther away.

Most people don’t want to talk about “religion”. For years I would be the first one to change the subject. Religion never worked for me. I tried it and failed. But, for some reason I never could let go of the idea that there really is a God. And, more importantly, for some reason God never let go of me. I don’t know why I believe, other than it’s by the grace of God. If it were left up to me, I’d just be “spiritual” and hope that the “universe” was grading on the curve and everything would work itself out to my eternal benefit somehow.

But God had a different plan. And now, for me, Easter is the most important holiday. Because Christ is Risen, He Is Risen Indeed. That Easter falls on April 1 this year makes it only more special for me. If I am a fool for believing, so be it.

“And if Christ has not been raised, your faith is futile; you are still in your sins. Then those also who have fallen asleep in Christ are lost. If only for this life we have hope in Christ, we are of all people most to be pitied.” I Corinthians 15: 17-19

Five Smooth Stones

Then he took his staff in his hand, chose five smooth stones from the stream, put them in the pouch of his shepherd’s bag and, with his sling in his hand, approached the Philistine.” 1 Samuel 17:40

I always have extra batteries available in March. For the remote control. For March Madness. Especially for the first round of March Madness. I record some of the “more significant” games and then find myself channel flipping as the others are played. Last night I flipped the channel and saw that UMBC had a double-digit lead over top-ranked Virginia…in the second half.

It was early in the second half, so my money was still on Virginia to wake up and pull away. So I flipped the channel again to TCU-Syracuse. But that UMBC-Virginia score was showing at the top of the screen and UMBC was still hanging on to a sizeable lead. I had to flip back to that game.

My wife was sitting there surfing on her iPad, glancing at the television from time to time. Making conversation she looked up and asked, “Is that TCU in the white jerseys?”.

I slowly replied, sort of Jimmy Stewart-ish, “Uh No….no..uh..that’s Virginia…and they are losing to UMBC”.

“Who’s UMBC?”, her eyes turning back to her iPAd.

Sports nut that I am, I am supposed to know these things.

My wife began to speculate. Are they from Missouri? Michigan? British Columbia? British Columbia…seriously?

I clicked on the “info” button and discovered that UMBC was the University of Maryland- Baltimore County. I then answered her question as though this was common knowledge that every sports fan should know. She looked up just before I exited the information pop-up screen and called me out for cheating.

I have to admit it. I had no clue who UMBC was. I pay no attention to 16 seeded teams unless they are from one of the many places I have lived in my wandering life. I’ve never lived in Maryland. Apparently the University of Virginia Men’s basketball team was not paying attention either.

As I watched UMBC, The Retrievers, pull away and beat mighty Virginia 74-54; the story of David and Goliath immediately came to my mind. And I’m sure that story will be attached to UMBC by many writers, bloggers and tweeters. But, the complete story as reported in the Seventeenth Chapter of 1 Samuel notes that David chose “five smooth stones” for his confrontation with Goliath.

UMBC had five smooth stones plus some guys on the bench and a pretty good coach. Jarius Lyles was the smoothest of the stones and the one that really brought down Goliath with 28 points, 23 in the second half. (And, interestingly enough, Jarius gives us another Bible reference. Jesus brought his daughter back to life. This is all just too good, isn’t it?)

But some stories really are too good to not be true. I feel bad for UVA, but UMBC’s monumental upset, the first time a 16 seed has ever beaten a 1 seed, is a classic feel good story. With all of the NCAA cheating scandals, paying players under the table, shoe deals and other shenanigans; for this one night five smooth stones from an unexpected and mostly unknown place made college sports history and in a good way. The Retrievers brought us back to the best college sports has to offer. And it was glorious.

Free Trade

President Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum is a bad idea. Tariffs have never been a great idea and usually bad things happen in the global economy when a super power starts playing games with tariffs. In today’s global economy, it’s an even worse idea.

If we want to fix our balance of trade, we need to take the long-term view. Investments in infrastructure and education will make us better and more competitive in the global economy. We talk about bringing jobs back to America. We don’t have enough qualified people to fill those jobs. We don’t have an unemployment problem. We have an “unemployable” people problem. So we need to educate, train AND motivate our workforce in order to get over that hump. (And that “motivate” part is a whole other subject.)

I predict that cooler heads will prevail and Trump will change his mind as he so often does. He’ll say that the threat has gotten concessions from our global competitors and his bluff worked. The art of the deal strikes again. Of course, it will be total nonsense and we’ll just move on to the next issue.

Trump has done some good things. The tax bill, his Supreme Court pick and reducing regulations on businesses are all winners. And he may even get something worked out with North Korea. There may be a method to Trump’s madness. But the problem is that when you’re the leader of the free world, you can’t afford to be wrong on the big stuff. That’s how wars get started.

“I love free trade, but we need great leadership to have real free trade. And we don't have good leadership. We have leadership that doesn't know what it's doing.” – Donald J. Trump.

Provide For The Common Defense

In the past I’ve commented about guns, gun violence and mass shootings. For the record:
_I’m not a member of the NRA
_I do own quite a few guns including a couple of semi-automatic handguns.
_I do not own an AR-15 or similar type of weapon (nor do I have plans to own one).
_I do have a concealed carry license. But I rarely carry a gun.
_I do have a pistol in my vehicle
_I have never shot at anyone, don’t want to and hope I never will.
_I live out in the country and I am my own protection. I have a gun at both ends of the house and out back in my office. I believe it’s better to have a gun and not need it, than to need one and not have it.
_Since I’ve been old enough to vote, I’ve voted for both Democrats and Republicans. Right now Republicans hold a 60-40 edge. And the older I get, the more I lean that direction. Pretty common for old white guys, even those who used to have long-hair and protest everything.

We have a serious problem in this country. And it’s not just guns, but guns are certainly part of the problem. It’s time to face up to the fact that any place where two or more are gathered there is a chance that someone will attack them. That someone can attack them with an AR-15 using high-capacity magazine fire power makes the problem even worse. So take the AR-15’s away or at least reduce firepower (and then figure out how to enforce it…good luck with that).

Fine. Now what? Little Johnny’s meds aren’t working so he takes daddy’s shotgun and kills 2 or 3 of his classmates instead of 15 or 20. Are we going to have a parade? Or do we just ramp up the gun ban conversation?

And when Little Johnny can’t get a gun what will he do? If he can drive, he’ll just run over a bunch of kids. He watches the news. Or he’ll go online and learn how to make a bomb. He may be crazy, but he’s not stupid. Or maybe he just torches the place or poisons the sloppy joes in the cafeteria.

I don’t think there is one right answer. But I think there are a number of steps in the right direction. In my opinion they include the following:
_ Armed protection wherever people are gathered. (Effective armed protection, not a deputy hiding outside waiting for help.) We have better protection at my little church on Sunday mornings for less than 100 people than those kids had down in Florida. (I don’t carry my gun, but we have a couple of law enforcement members who do. And if they weren’t there, I would be carrying mine.)
_Raise the age limit to 21 for the purchase of semi-automatic weapons ( handguns or rifles) and require stricter background checks…maybe it’s double or triple checks and a longer waiting period.
_Make fixing the NICS (National Instant Criminal Background Check System) a priority. There is no excuse for there being any gaps here other than the usual government incompetence. My guess is they’ve spent millions with some consulting firm that has milked this project for all it’s worth.
_And I’m ok with a national gun registry. I know there are plenty of people who see this as an invasion of privacy and the first step to gun confiscation. But guns are something we need to keep up with. Where are they and who has them?
_When kids are at risk, get them some help and keep an eye on them. “The Village” failed Nikolas Cruz and he declared war on it. He even warned them. No one listened.

I’ll let Andrew Pollack wrap this up. His daughter was shot and killed at Parkland. If you haven’t seen or listened to this…it’s well worth 4 minutes of your time.
https://youtu.be/u_2947uZ7U8

The Next Decade...and Beyond

With those wild swings in the stock market we tend to worry about the right now. How much money did I lose last week? How much will I lose next week? Where are interest rates going? What about inflation? Is our government going to implode?

But perhaps we should think longer term. What does the bigger picture look like? Now nine years into the second decade of the 21st Century (yes 2018 is the 9th year of this decade), it’s not too soon to give serious thought about the next decade, the 2020’s. In fact, as a business person if you have not been thinking about it, it may be too late. I don’t have a crystal ball and I’m not one of those 160 IQ futurists who have the next 100 years all figured out. But, I am paying attention. There’s a lot of information out there and one can drown in data. One can also find numbers that support just about any position on any subject. But occasionally you get hit with numbers that only point in one direction.

Now I will admit that there is a chance these could turn out to be wrong, but as far as I can tell they are pretty accurate. It’s basic math. In the United States, 80 million Baby Boomers are riding off into the sunset. 150 million Gen X-ers and Gen Z-ers are in or will soon be in the marketplace. While their purchasing power as well their purchasing habits may be more muted than those of the Baby Boomer generation, these 150 million are still going to need some place to live, things to sit on and sleep on, clothes to wear and food to eat. They will need products and services to cook, clean, repair and sanitize themselves and their stuff. They will need to be entertained, transported, doctored and lawyered. They will need to house, care for and eventually bury their elders. And they will try to find the answers to life’s big questions. That means they will probably spend a lot of money until they figure out that is not the answer.

By 2030, the United States is projected to have a population of over 350,000,000. That is up from around 320,000,000 in 2015. The global population is projected to be over 8.5 Billion! The fastest growth areas are Africa, India, Indonesia and Mexico. The United States population growth will be very dependent on immigration and given the policy debates surrounding that issue, it’s a wild card. But if anything, I could see us ending up with even more than 350 million people here by 2030. Compared to the rest of the world, we have the best deal going. Even the Republicans and Democrats can’t screw it up totally. (Well, maybe they can. There is that “debt” issue. But we can always print more money, right? Not to worry.)

So the good news for business owners is that there is going to be plenty of demand out there. People will need AND want lots of stuff and services. The challenges will be adapting to a changing work force and disruptive technologies. Those businesses that can adapt, adjust and overcome, AND do so quickly and frequently, are going to win and win big. Those that cannot will be eaten by those that can. The 2020’s…the decade of opportunity and eat or be eaten.


“I think there's every reason this 21st century will be much happier.”- Dalai Lama

Shadows of Truth

So the “Nunes Memo” appears on Ground Hog Day. And just like Punxsutawney Phil, the Truth saw it’s shadow. Phil’s shadow means six more weeks of hard winter. Even though the groundhog’s forecasts are wrong more than 50% of the time, literally a coin flip predicts weather more accurately than Phil, we all pay attention to Phil and his shadow. And yesterday the world paid attention to the “the Memo”. And now the debate rages on as to what it really means. I think it’s fair to say there are shadows of truth here. Many on The Right are touting it as the “nail in the coffin” for Mueller’s investigation into Russian collusion. While The Left cries foul and claims it to be just more Trump-ublican chicanery designed to deflect and divert attention.

As with most things, especially political things, the truth is probably somewhere in between. But we are not likely to get to the middle anytime soon. We are living in the shadows of truth these days. We know it’s there somewhere because we see it’s shadow. Like a cloud passing over the earth. But when we look up, the cloud has moved and changed its shape. Even its shadow is different.

Twenty-five years ago the movie “Ground Hog Day” came out. As you may recall, Bill Murray plays the role of an arrogant, jaded weatherman from Pittsburgh who is forced to go out to Punxsutawney and cover Ground Hog Day. He ends up in a looping time-warp reliving Ground Hog Day while indulging in all sorts of bad behavior and dying in various ways only to re-awake again on Ground Hog Day. Rinse and repeat. Ultimately he is forced to stop and think about his life and his priorities and his values.

If feels like we too are living in a looping time-warp. We get up every day and listen to the same competing, totally biased narratives. We occasionally catch a glimpse of shadows that appear to be those of the truth. But then they are blown away by the next wave of accusation, innuendo and opinion. With mid-term elections coming up the battle will rage on. And after the mid-terms the battle will continue to rage, because…gee whiz…the Presidential election is just around the corner. And the loop will just keep on looping.

“There is no way that this winter is ever going to end as long as this groundhog keeps seeing his shadow.” Phil Connors (Bill Murray), from the movie “Ground Hog Day”.