Free Advice

We used to live in a town that had a great farmers’ market down on the square. During late spring and early summer, one could go there on a Saturday morning and not only buy local products but also see local characters on display. It was a farmers’ market with a mixture of art show, carnival, music concert, political rally and tailgating all thrown in for good measure. One of my favorite characters was this guy who sat at a card table with only two things on it. A tip jar and a sign that said “Free Advice”. You could ask him anything and he would solemnly ponder the question and then give an answer. The answer might reflect the wisdom of Solomon or be totally off-the-wall ridiculous and often hilarious. But he never cracked a smile or engaged in any conversation beyond, “What is your question? My advice is as follows….”

As a headhunter, I offer quite a bit of free advice to clients and candidates regarding the job market. I consider the free advice as an investment in building positive long-term business relationships and do my best to make sure that it is sound advice. And as I watch what’s going on in the world, I feel the need to offer some free advice about a number of issues. It’s unlikely that anyone will care, much less take action. But at least I tried and did so for free.

So here’s some free advice on a variety of topics which should be easily identified (but I’ll provide some points of reference just in case):

_Follow the money. (Want to get the bad guys in the Middle East? Want to solve the immigration problem? Want to figure out why Washington is so dysfunctional? Why is there so much coverage of the Ferguson MO shooting?.)

_Avoid confrontation with law enforcement officials. (Ferguson MO and lots of other places)

_Married men, do not go on the radio and talk about all of the women you’ve had sex with. (Nick Cannon, aka Mr. Mariah Carey)

_ Do not flip people off. (Johnny Manziel)

_Drill baby drill. (Energy independence…which also sticks it to the bad guys in the Middle East, see “follow the money” advice above).

_Do not trust politicians. (You already knew that…pick any example from Putin to Obama).

_Always get a second opinion. (My shoulder surgery was successful and recovery is going well.)

_Do not leave kids, or pets for that matter, in a hot car. (How many more unnecessary deaths will it take?)

_Don’t waste water. (Hello… we are running out of water in a lot of places.)

_Do not allow expenses to exceed revenue. (Starting with the Federal Government.)

_Get some exercise. (You know this is good advice.)

_Spend time with God and if a voice tells you to cut off someone’s head, it’s not God’s.

_Read a book instead of watching television. (Reality TV is not real.)

_Listen more than you talk. (One of the best pieces of advice you’ll ever get.)

I could go on, but most of us know what to do. Good advice is almost never anything we did not already know. Most of our missteps are not made out of ignorance. Thus my last piece of free advice: THINK.

Guys Hitting Girls

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that college and professional athletes having been making the headlines for beating up on women. One of those even struck close to home when a Texas Tech football player punched a woman in a pick-up basketball game. That this woman was a scholarship player on the Lady Raiders basketball team and was knocking the boys around pretty good, resulted in both athletes being penalized with partial season suspensions. But, the fact remains that an angry young man punched a woman in the face. Inexcusable.

So what’s up with all the violence against women? First of all, it’s nothing new. Secondly, it gets more publicity than it used to. And third, it probably is happening more often than it used to. Men have been hitting women forever. It’s a terrible fact of life on planet earth. I can honestly say that by the grace of God I did not grow up around it. Women were pretty much put on a pedestal and treated with respect on both sides of my family. Unfortunately, I haven’t always upheld those values and confess that I’ve done my share of verbal and emotional abusing. And that can be just as bad, if not worse, than physical abuse. But, I’ve never hit a woman.

That some families have a history of physical abuse is well documented. And it’s not uncommon for the kids to get beat up just as badly as their mothers. It’s a cycle and when young men get the message that hitting a woman is what men do and that somehow it works; then those young men are inclined to hit women. In a culture that openly and without sanction calls women “bitches” and “whores”, violence against women flows naturally.

And in a society that values money, sex and power over all else; many women find themselves riding on mans most sensitive nerve. And I don’t mean the one between his legs. I mean the one between his ears and its name is EGO. The male ego is powerful. It can drive men to do great things and it can drive men to do terrible things. It is no surprise that high profile male athletes are often involved in violent acts. And not just against women. Money, sex, power and EGO. The stuff that drives a man to push himself to the limits to succeed on the field can lead to bad things off the field. Especially when mixed with drugs and alcohol.

At the end of the day, guys hit girls for the same reasons that people use and abuse other people in a variety of ways. It’s the fallen human condition. Who’s worse? The pro football player who knocks out his fiancé and drags her off an elevator or the corporate executive who decides that it’s ok to allow kids in sweat shops to make his company’s merchandise? Who’s worse? The college athletes who take advantage of a drunken, passed-out coed or the middle-aged, family man who after tucking his kids into bed sits in the dark looking at pornographic images of young women on his laptop?

But first things first. Guys don’t hit girls. Period, end of discussion. From there, perhaps we can go to work on the deeper problems.


“The Roots of Violence: Wealth without work, Pleasure without conscience, Knowledge without character, Commerce without morality, Science without humanity, Worship without sacrifice, Politics without principles." - Gandhi

Drivers Wanted

The truck driver shortage has finally reached the tipping point. The shortage has been around in varying degrees for over 30 years. After the industry was deregulated, truckload carriers started growing like crazy. Supply chains were redesigned and truckload carriers began hauling direct from manufacturing plants to store shelves. Truckload networks evolved to optimize service, utilization and empty miles. Drivers were not paid much, the trucks were plain vanilla and they stayed on the road 2-3 weeks at a time.

Pretty soon the industry figured out that there were not enough people willing to drive those trucks, for that pay, under those conditions. So the trucks got nicer, the pay got bumped up a few cents per mile and efforts were made to get drivers home more frequently. This formula was updated and used repeatedly depending on the state of the economy and the demand for trucking services. In addition to nicer trucks, more home time and a little extra money; carriers tried to become more “driver friendly”. Different approaches were tried operationally to improve communication and make sure that driver needs were being met. All sorts of programs and gimmicks were utilized to attract and retain drivers. Just make the job not suck and convince the drivers that they were highly valued team members and you might win the driver battle. And winning the driver battle meant beating your competition. It’s like the old joke about two hikers being chased by a bear. You don’t need to outrun the bear, just the other hiker. No one was really “winning” the driver battle. Some carriers just ran faster than others.

But now the industry is facing the perfect storm. It’s hard to find anything positive in the driver supply formula. Demographics, negative. There simply aren’t enough qualified younger people entering the workforce to replace the older drivers.

Regulations, negative. The regulatory environment has effectively taken drivers out of the pool either directly or the drivers have just given up on the industry and walked away.

Working conditions, negative. While the trucks may be nicer and easier to drive, and drivers get home more often; it’s still a tough job. Traffic congestion in particular has gotten much worse. Drivers are being paid by the mile and end up spending a lot of time just sitting in traffic gridlock hell. It’s much worse than it was only a few years ago.

Compensation, negative. When all of the hours are taken into account, not just “on duty”, the effective pay rate per hour is pretty marginal.

Competition from other industries, negative. There simply aren’t enough literate, drug-free, legal workers available for blue collar jobs that require literate, drug-free, legal workers.

This week Swift, the nation’s largest truckload carrier, stock dropped 18% when the company said that it was “constrained” by a challenging driver market in the second quarter, that turnover was higher than anticipated and offered guidance that EPS for the current period would be 3-7 cents below analysts’ estimates.

I predict that more large carriers will report that the driver shortage is having a major negative impact on earnings. I think we are on the cusp of a mega shift in the trucking industry. Rates will go up dramatically. There is no other option. By 2020, I predict that rates will be 40-50% higher than they are today (net of fuel surcharges). Some of that will go directly to drivers. Some will go toward equipment. Some will go to cover the cost of training and retaining drivers. This increased cost of moving freight over the road, will push more freight to the rails, elevate inventory levels and significantly impact the locating of manufacturing, processing, assembly and distribution points. And just about everything is going to cost a bit more. We’ve enjoyed a long run of relatively low logistics cost, much of it on the backs of working folks who just drive trucks for a living. Nothing last forever.

2nd Opinions

Several weeks ago I related the stories of my shoulder MRI, my surprise at the severity of the injury and the ultimate skepticism that led me to cancel the surgery and get a second opinion. So on Monday I got that second opinion. My wife went with me for the appointment, so I was prepared for a lot of second opinions. On the way to the appointment, I told her that my gut feel was that he would give me a shot and send me to therapy. There was just no way that my shoulder was that bad. She shook her head and commented that the shoulder has been bad for almost a year and that the first opinion was probably spot on. Nevertheless, she was glad that I was getting a second opinion and hopeful that if I did have surgery, I would have it done in the city.

Well, the second opinion was the same as the first. Only this time, the surgeon went into more detail. I suppose knowing that it was a second opinion, he decided that he needed to give me a full explanation.
Without going into all of the details, the bottom line is fix it now or else it will get much worse and may become un-repairable. To her credit, my wife did not say a word. At least not until we got back in the car and headed home. Man, that was a long drive.

And sometimes things just have a way of working out. The surgeon had a cancellation this Friday (probably some stubborn guy who decided to get a second opinion). Instead of having to wait a couple of weeks, I can get this over with now. So very, very early Friday morning we’ll be driving down to Big D for surgery. I’ll be back home Friday afternoon, arm in a sling and sleeping in a recliner for a couple of weeks. Been there done that, so I know what to expect. And oh by the way, my wife also gave me a second opinion. In her opinion, I’m really hard-headed and if I had listened to her, all of this would have been done last fall after the initial injury. Ok, Ok…I get it. I hate it when she’s right.

The Job Market

So at the half-way mark of 2014, what does the job market look like for transportation, logistics and supply chain management professionals? My short answer is that it’s good, but not great. I might even call it very good for highly mobile candidates who have certain skills and experience. To be more specific, I would describe our job market in terms of good news and bad news.

The Good News:

_1 The job market in our industry is the best it’s been since before the Great Recession. It really started to bounce back in late 2011 and has continued to improve. And, I expect continued improvement through 2016 at least.

_2 The housing market has rebounded to the point where more people are not underwater on their homes so relocation is possible. Plus the overall improving job market makes it a bit easier for relocating spouses to find new employment. But this is still a challenge.

_3 If you are a safety, maintenance, operations or capacity development professional (and you are mobile), there are plenty of opportunities out there.

_4 Compensation/relocation packages are showing some signs of improvement. Are they where they need to be? No, but reality is starting to set in with employers.

_5 There just aren’t a lot of experienced (and mobile) transportation and logistics professionals. Especially on the “service provider” side, i.e. truckers, 3PL’s, freight forwarders, warehousing/distribution/fulfillment, final -mile, intermodal, etc. Over the past decade the transactional brokerage companies are really the only ones who have aggressively hired, trained and developed new talent. Unfortunately a significant number of those individuals do not stay in the industry and those who do tend to do very well and stay put. If you are a candidate, this is good news. If you’re an employer, not so much.

The Bad News

_1 Employers are being very selective. There is still a perception that there are “lots of good people out there looking for work.” So employers are not willing to “settle”. And if they do have to “settle” they will tend to hire on the cheap, promote from within or hire someone “from their network”. They are certainly not at the point of paying a premium (or paying a headhunter’s fee) for marginal talent.

_2 Given that employers are being “very selective”, the interview and hiring process tends to be increasingly long and tedious. However, we are starting to see employers losing out on candidates because they take too long to make a decision. Eventually, if this happens often enough, employers will begin to accelerate the process.

_3 The demand for sales professionals (direct contributors as well as managers) is way off. With freight volumes exceeding capacity at levels we’ve not seen in decades and no real solution to the capacity problem, companies are reluctant to add sales overhead just to generate more business they cannot handle.

_4 While the job market is the best it’s been since before the Great Recession, it’s still not back to 2004-2006 levels. Back then I would say that employers were so in need of talent that they looked for reasons to hire a candidate. Today it seems that we’re in a market where employers look for reasons NOT to hire a candidate.

_5 The uncertainty or lack of confidence with respect to our government continues to cloud expectations. I think it’s fair to say that most transportation/logistics industry leaders are concerned that whatever comes out of Washington is more likely than not to be unfavorable to their companies.


Ever the pessimist, I hope for the best but always expect the worst. But that said, I am actually pretty optimistic about the job opportunities in this industry. Stuff has to be moved from point A to point B and regardless of modes, points of origin and destination or the nature of “the stuff” being moved; it’s a process that requires equipment, facilities, technology, energy, money and people. It’s always a puzzle and it’s always changing, but it’s always there.

And Then There Is Skepticism

“The path of sound credence is through the thick forest of skepticism”- George Jean Nathan

The “Pessimism” of June 28th turned into “Skepticism” on June 30th. A weekend of talking to friends and family about the upcoming shoulder surgery led me to postpone it. That’s a lot of wasted money on pre-op testing, but you know what…it’s my shoulder. Maybe it was the good round of golf Saturday afternoon; or maybe a couple of stories about people recovering from torn rotator cuffs without surgery; or recalling my rule about always getting a second opinion before letting someone cut you open; or maybe it’s just the fact as noted before that I’m still doing chores and working out and functioning pretty darn well even with a torn rotator cuff; or maybe I’m just a coward and don’t want to go through the rehab again.

Whatever it is, I’m getting a second opinion in a couple of weeks. (And if I don’t like that one, I may get a third.)

Why Pessimism Is Good For You

“The man who is a pessimist before 48 knows too much; if he is an optimist after it he knows too little.”
― Mark Twain

In the last installment I discussed my claustrophobia and having an MRI on my shoulder. I had reinjured a surgically repaired shoulder and noted that the doctor “thinks we might be able to avoid surgery or if we do have surgery he can just ‘scope’ it. “ Well, I had my follow up meeting with the doctor and he gives me the bad news. The MRI shows a significant tear (3cm) in the rotator cuff. It will require “open” surgery and we need to do it sooner rather than later. Seems that my tolerance for pain has worked against me. I injured the shoulder last September and thought it wasn’t that bad. Turns out I was wrong and now it’s almost too late to fix it. Not fixing it means that eventually the shoulder will lock up and just become a useless knot o f pain. The fact that I’m still working out, doing chores and playing golf is because I’m in good shape and have a high tolerance for pain (a trait which has been invaluable in both the trucking industry and headhunting.)

Once again I am reminded why optimism is way over-rated and expecting the worse nearly always makes sense. Had I expected the worse last year when I injured the shoulder, I would have gone to the doctor at that time. The repair would have been much easier and more likely to have a successful outcome. I would have also avoided months of pain and anxiety about what’s really wrong with my shoulder. Had I expected the worse when I finally went to the doctor, I would not have been so disappointed when he told me about the surgery requirement.

I am convinced that being a pessimist in the best and safest path to take in this life. Every time I try to be positive, reality kicks me in the balls. So I’m having another shoulder surgery on July 2. If I live through it and don’t get an infection I will be happy. I expect a lot of pain, weeks of torturous rehab and, at best, a weak and stiff shoulder when it’s all said and done. Anything better will be a bonus and exceed my wildest expectations. Now prepared for the worst, I can relax.