Monday, December 28, 2015
"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”- William Arthur Ward
Every year around this time I review and grade the predictions I made in the previous December. Then I make my predictions for the coming year. Each year my predictions get worse. Be it sports, politics, world events or financial markets; my crystal ball is broken. Last year, I got a few predictions partially correct. The New England Patriots did win the Super Bowl. Lower energy prices kept the economy from going totally in the tank. A big logistics company bought a big trucking company, but not exactly as I predicted. Most everything else I got wrong.
I’ve noticed that a lot of magazines, newspapers and bloggers have now taken to making annual predictions. Most of them don’t look back a year later. And if they do, they only point out the predictions they got right or close to right. Predictions, especially off-the-wall predictions, tend to get “clicks” (no pun intended.) Readers are more likely to “click” on a headline that reads: “Hillary Won’t Be On The Ballot In November” than they are one that reads: “Clinton A Lock For the Democratic Nomination”.
So this year, I thought seriously about making some crazy predictions, just on the off chance one might be right. But, ended up deciding to take the more serious approach, knowing full well that I will likely be wrong again on most of them. So here we go with the 2016 predictions:
1. Hillary Clinton wins the election. (I’m not sure any Republican could win a national election these days.)
2. The U.S. economy muddles along. The second half of the year is better than the first half.
3. Oil prices stay below $50 barrel.
4. The Arizona Cardinals beat the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.
5. The Chicago Cubs win the World Series over the Houston Astros
6. Jordan Spieth does not win a major this year.
7. “Spotlight” wins the Academy Award for Best Motion Picture.
8. The Supreme Court will rule against the University of Texas’ affirmative action admissions policy (Fisher v. University of Texas)
9. Terrorists attacks against Western targets will escalate in 2016.
10. Federal Debt will remain at levels above 100% of GDP.
In other words, 2016 looks like more of the same. God help us.