Tuesday, December 26, 2017

So Long Rooster, Hello Dog.

“If a dog will not come to you after having looked you in the face, you should go home and examine your conscience.”
― Woodrow Wilson

So we come to the end of another year. 2017 was the Year of the Rooster. 2018 is the Year of the Dog. The Earth Dog to be more specific. Last one was in 1958. The year of Sputnik and the invention of the microchip. 2018 should be interesting.

Now it’s time to grade my 2017 predictions and go back out on that limb for 2018.

Here’s what we said about 2017:

1. This one is easy…Alabama wins the National Championship
Close but close doesn’t count. Congrats to Clemson. Grade: C+

2. E-commerce retail sales will exceed $450 Billion
The final numbers aren’t in yet, but I think we will exceed $450 Billion. Grade: A

3. Oil prices go up a bit but remain under $60
Pretty accurate forecast. Grade: A
(Dec 27: A last gasp push..and the price briefly went over $60 before backing off...so this grade drops to C+)

4. The Cleveland Indians beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series.
The Dodgers got there but the Indians really let me down. Grade: B-

5. GDP growth at 3%
We’re going to get close, but for the year will be under 3%. Grade: B

6. Moonlight wins Academy Award for Best Movie
Yes. Grade: A

7. New England beats Dallas in the Super Bowl.
New England got there and won. Dallas, Atlanta…same difference… B+

8. Going out on a limb here, but the next Supreme Court Justice will not be a white guy.
Whiffed on this one. Grade: F

9. Significant M&A activity in the final mile delivery space
Not really. I still think it will come eventually….Grade: D

10. Trump gets a lot done in his first year and drives the mainstream media crazy.
Welp, he got some things done and he definitely drove the media crazy….Grade: B+


Now the fun part. What will 2018 bring?

1. I am going with Alabama again to win the Natty. Just can’t bet against Saban.

2. GDP growth tails off in the second half of the year. A shortage of workers and the mid-term election cycle put a damper on the economy.

3. The Post wins Best Movie. How could it not?

4. I think oil prices just bump along at current levels, maybe down a bit.

5. China will handle N. Korea.

6. The Democrats win big in the mid-terms.

7. We finally pass an infrastructure spending bill.

8. The Mueller investigation goes nowhere, but keeps on going.

9. Big news on the UFO question.

10. The Dodgers meet the Astros again in the World Series. Dodgers win. (And, of course, New England wins the Super Bowl. Doesn’t matter who they play.)

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