2015....Just Keep On Running

"It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”
-The Red Queen (Alice in Wonderland, Lewis Carroll)

Time to revisit my predictions for 2014. How did I do? And what lies ahead in 2015?

Here are the 2014 predictions (published December 26, 2013) and my official grades.

Prediction Number 1:
This one is a layup…Tiger Woods does not win a major.

Result: Nailed it. A+

Prediction Number 2:
Denver and Seattle meet in the Super Bowl. Weather plays a major factor in the game in favor of Seattle, but Peyton Manning throws a game-winning touchdown pass in the final seconds.

Result: Denver and Seattle did meet up in the Super Bowl, but it was one-sided in favor of Seattle. C grade at best.

Prediction Number 3:
The Administration will keep moving the goalposts on Obamacare and the costs of the program will become unsustainable. Our healthcare system will get a lot worse, so you better take care of yourself.

Result: Depends on who you believe, but from what I see costs are going up and few are pleased with the program. I’d give myself a B+ on this one.

Prediction Number 4:
We’ll make significant progress on immigration reform. It’s a mid-term election year and this is an issue that politicians from both sides can get behind. And with an improving economy the business community needs workers.

Result: Our politicians are even dumber than I thought they were (and I think they are pretty dumb). Really nothing happened this year but a lot of rhetoric, as usual. This one feels like an F.

Prediction Number 5:
The unemployment rate drops below 6.5%. The economy is improving and long-term unemployment benefits are drying up. GDP growth will be in the 2.5-2.7% range in 2014.

Result: Solid on the unemployment and the economy did even better than expected. Grade A-

Prediction Number 6:
Anyone born after 1980 will cease using the words “twerking” or “swagger”.

Result: Twerking seems to have run its course. Still some swagger hanging on in football. B+

Prediction Number 7:
Matthew McConaughey will win the Oscar for Best Actor for his role in Dallas Buyers Club.

Result: Well alright, alright, alright....A+

Prediction Number 8:
St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series.

Result: Cards didn’t make it. F

Prediction Number 9:
Another year will pass with no significant movement toward addressing our federal deficit problem. The stock market will peak in Q3 and begin a downward slide into 2015.

Result: Correct on the federal deficit. Missed the stock market peak. It’s still rolling. C+

Prediction Number 10:
Hope I’m wrong, but something really bad is going to happen during the Winter Olympics.

Result: Glad that I missed this one. Grade F

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Predictions for 2015

Prediction Number 1:
Green Bay and New England meet up in the Super Bowl. I’ll be rooting for the Packers, but they will end up losing to the Pats.

Prediction Number 2:
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers go to the World Series. Dodgers win in six.

Prediction Number 3:
I'm going out on limb here and predicting that oil prices do not drop below $50 barrel. We'll find out soon enough if I'm right. And I do not see it going above $70 in 2015.

Prediction Number 4:
Cheaper energy will keep the economy going. Even two months ago I didn’t see this steep of a drop in the price of oil. Put this much money in American consumer pockets and the economy will do just fine in the short run.

Prediction Number 5:
We commit more troops and resources in the battle vs ISIS.

Prediction Number 6:
There will be progress on immigration reform. I said it would happen in 2014 and was wrong. It has to happen in 2015.

Prediction Number 7:
A top ten truckload carrier will be purchased by a top five logistics (brokerage) company.

Prediction Number 8:
Someone other than Hillary Clinton will emerge as the Democratic front runner for 2016

Prediction Number 9:
A major hail storm is going to hit my place this year and I get a new roof. It’s just long overdue and that’s what happens every few years in Texas.

Prediction Number 10:
I will get my first hole in one. This is also long overdue and now that my shoulder is fixed I plan on playing a lot of golf. The odds are in my favor. Every "No" is one step closer to "Yes"…that sort of thing.