It's Not Really About the Candidates

 

So, Trump received guilty verdicts on 34 charges in a New York court.  It’s a big story for now but these verdicts will be over-turned on appeal which will become the next big story.  Trump may still win in November.  Or maybe Biden wins.  Or maybe Republican and Democratic party leadership wakes up and finds replacement candidates.  

 

Whatever the outcome, we now live in a nation even more divided.  Conservatives vs. Progressives with little common ground between them.  This division is forcing “independents” to pick a side.  Of course, there will be some number of middle-grounders who will vote for a personality or whichever side supports their hot-button self-interest issue. But increasingly voters will have to weigh one side versus the other in terms of the voter’s overall self-interest, not just one big issue.  

 

There are hardcore supporters on the left and right who toe the line and buy into everything their party stands for.  But the big middle is made up of people who have their own opinions.  Nevertheless, that doesn’t make them independent.  These “middle” voters will make hard choices and it won’t be based on what they think of Trump or Biden.  It will come down to what’s most important to these voters and which party is most likely to do what these voters consider to be “the right thing” at this time. 

 

Trump and Biden may be symbolic but are essentially irrelevant to these voters.  It’s about the issues that matter.  My sense is that the most important ones revolve around the economy, border security and cultural values.  Clearly there are many divisive issues imbedded within these categories and some voters will base their vote on one or two issues.  Abortion access for example or student loan forgiveness.  But most of those in the middle will be considering a wide range of issues and it will come down to which party is most likely to fix the most problems or perhaps just stop the bleeding and do no further harm.

 

The “middle voters” in the swing states will decide the November election. Whichever party can convince these voters they are most likely to address their concerns will win.  The party that caters too much to their devoted followers will lose.  

 

I don’t live in a swing state.  Texas remains red, although not as red as it used to be.  I am one of those middle voters who is not “all in” on either side.  But I do know how I will vote.  Something about stop digging when you’re in a deep hole.