What Are You Seeing Out There?

“What are you seeing out there?” I get this question a lot. I get it from both candidates and hiring authorities. I usually respond with a question along the lines of: “Do you mean the job market, the industry or the economy in general?” And, I usually get back “All of the above”.

So what am I seeing out there? First of all, understand that I am looking through the lens of transportation and logistics. And while it can be a pretty good indicator of overall economic activity, it is only one indicator. Secondly, the job market that I touch everyday is related to management and executive positions in the transportation, logistics and supply chain space. And that market has its own unique characteristics.

But these considerations notwithstanding, “what I am seeing” has relevance. And “what I am seeing” is a slowdown in hiring activity. It started in the summer and I thought it might be related to decision makers taking vacations and we would see things pick up in September. And we have seen a slight uptick in activity this Fall. But, it’s not enough to renew my confidence even though the number of total “job openings” across the nation has grown significantly year over year. It will be interesting to see how that growth holds up through the remainder of 2014 and into 2015. In our market, the hiring process has slowed and we are starting to see more clients “re-think” filling positions immediately. I would say that there is a growing concern about what the winter will bring and what to expect in 2015.

While freight remains strong and capacity is tight, I am starting to hear stories of downward pricing pressure in the heavy, specialized transportation segment. In my experience, this is an early indicator of an economic slowdown. Even more so, considering that overall capacity is down in that market. It will be interesting to see what happens in the flatbed and bulk sectors. To the extent those markets have benefited from the energy boom, demand there is trending down. Especially as it relates to new production. The upside is that cheaper energy will benefit other sectors of transportation and perhaps more importantly put more dollars in the consumer’s pocket. If there is one thing that may get us through the winter and 2015, it will be that cheaper energy translates to more consumer spending power.

The weakness in Europe and other foreign markets is starting to impact our economy. Of specific concern is that the manufacturing revival in the U.S. is very vulnerable to any decline in overseas demand. The political climate continues to worry and frustrate businesses while the specter of global terrorism poses a big “what if” question to every company’s strategic plan. And then there are long-term challenges related to massive government debt, a crumbling infrastructure, educating/training the next generation and figuring out how to support and care for an aging population.

Do I think the sky is falling? No. Do I think we are headed for another Great Recession? No. Do I think 2015-2016 will be up and down with more bad news than good. Yes. Will companies need exceptionally talented leaders more than ever? Yes. Will they actual hire them? Your guess is as good as mine.

Roots

As long as I can remember my dad’s side of the family has said we have “Indian blood”. Cherokee to be exact, from East Tennessee. My great-great grandfather was supposedly half-Cherokee. I have an old photo of his son, my great-grandfather, and I suppose he looks sort of Indian-ish. My grandfather and his siblings all tended to be sort of dark, with high cheek bones and a thirst for "fire water". My dad was the same. We tend to “hold our age” pretty well and “heal up fast” from wounds and injuries. So it all made sense. We had Indian blood.

Several years ago I started doing some digging and traced the Clicks back to SW Germany. The actual surname is Gluck and got changed to Click when they got to America. The first one arrived in the late 1700’s and the migration began through the Appalachians and eventually to Texas. Good stuff and I have filled in most of the Click family tree. Never could figure out exactly when the Indian got into “the woodpile”, but it was likely sometime in the early 1800’s.

A few years ago I thought about getting a DNA test just to confirm the Native American ancestry. But I figured, why waste the money? I’m German, Irish, English and Native American on my dad’s side; English, Irish and Scottish on my mother’s. A classic American mutt. But, I kept getting these emails and special deals from Ancestry.com about DNA tests. Their persistent marketing along with my curiosity finally drove me to invest in a basic DNA profile test. It’s nothing elaborate. They mail you a tube, you spit in it, shake it up to activate the chemical preservative and mail it back to them. In a couple of weeks they email you a report outlining your most likely ancestral origins. For a lot more money, they can provide further testing and drill down even deeper into your DNA. But I figured the “basic” profile would be enough.

Much to my surprise, there was no Indian in the woodpile or in the cupboard or anywhere else. And, apparently after old Ludwig Heinrich Gluck landed in America and became Lewis Henry Click, there weren’t many more Germans added to the woodpile either. I’m only 10% “Western European”. Turns out that my DNA origins are as follows: 30% Great Britain, 24% Ireland, 20% Scandinavian, 12% Iberian, 10% Western Europe, 3% Western Asia, 1% Eastern Europe.

I had never heard anything about Scandinavian ancestors, but as it turns out the Vikings spread their seed liberally throughout the British Isles, especially in what became Scotland and Ireland. So I’m guessing that is where the big dose of Scandinavian DNA got added to the recipe. The Iberian is most likely Spanish or Portuguese. Those guys explored the world and obviously plugged into the family tree somewhere along the way.

Now I am even more curious about my roots. I also need to come up with a different narrative since I’m not part Indian. You know I think I like the Viking and Conquistador options better. Or maybe my great-great-great-great granddaddy was a pirate. That would be pretty cool. And it explains so much about my family.

To Err Is Human…. And You Still Can’t Fix Stupid

Way back in 1999 the Institute of Medicine (IOM) issued its landmark report on medical errors, To Err Is Human: Building a Safer Health System. The report's finding that as many as 98,000 people die each year due to medical errors ignited professional and public dialogue. Some changes were made in response to this report. Most notably when you have surgery everyone, I mean EVERYONE, ask you who you are and what body part is having surgery. “X” marks the spot and for the most part they cut and dig in the right places these days.

Last week a man from Ebola-ravaged Liberia was taken to the emergency room at Texas Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas. This man had all of the symptoms associated with Ebola and had just arrived from West Africa. Whoever admitted this gentleman had this information but somehow failed to communicate it to the medical team. Even still, one would think that reasonably intelligent doctors and nurses would recognize that this black man might not be from around here and perhaps they should double check his recent travel history given the symptoms. He did not have an African sounding name, so perhaps that led the medical team to think he was a local. And he was probably too ill to speak for himself. But somewhere along this chain of events, at least one person knew exactly where he had been and several should have suspected. Nonetheless, he was given some totally useless antibiotics and sent away. Several days later he was brought back, even sicker, after having exposed dozens of people to the Ebola virus. We are still waiting to find out if any of those individuals are actually infected.

The healthcare industry is not unlike other industries. The stakes are higher and more precautions are taken. And we pay a premium for the level of quality and safety we do receive from our healthcare system. But, they still make mistakes, do the wrong thing or fail to do the right thing. Just like other industries. We talk a lot about quality and in many ways products are better than they used to be. Design, engineering and manufacturing processes are, for the most part, very good. When there are bugs or glitches they get fixed. But when quality depends on a significant level of human involvement at the point of delivery…watch out.

If you pay attention, you’ll find that you seldom get a “perfect order” if the content of direct human input is very high. Most of the time it’s good enough and we don’t complain. So companies still feel OK about their service. At least until their customers quit buying. Honestly, I am surprised when anyone actually “gets it right”. I don’t know if service is getting worse, but it’s definitely not getting better. And furthermore, no one really notices or cares very much. In fact, it has sort of become an excuse for all of us doing a half-assed job at whatever it is we do.

We talk a lot about better, faster, cheaper…but the real order of priority is cheaper, faster and better. And better really means “perceived better” than the competition. So we consumers make trade-offs between price (cheaper), convenience (faster) and quality (better); and businesses respond accordingly. A lot of the time, the order you pick up at the drive-thru window is wrong, so you learn to check it. You know that the “sack boy” is clueless and/or doesn’t care so you watch how he bags your groceries. You buy warranties and keep your expectations low. If your computer runs slow it’s probably your own fault and if you can’t sleep at night it’s because that “number mattress” didn’t come in half-sizes or you should have bought the better (more expensive) pillows. And once in awhile, a person infected with a deadly virus walks out of a hospital emergency room.

Spare The Rod

Even if you don’t follow sports, you’ve probably heard the news about NFL super-star running back Adrian Peterson being indicted in Texas on charges of “reckless or negligent injury to a child.” Since that news came out, it’s been reported that he had also injured another one of his kids in the past. The league and the Minnesota Vikings have been confused about what to do, but apparently once the money (sponsors) started talking, the NFL and the team listened. Peterson will not play this season. And I think that is the right call.

Peterson is a lot younger than I am but it sounds like he grew up in a similar culture where “whoopin” your kids to make them behave was just part of responsible parenting. I guess I was lucky. My folks weren’t much on “whoopin”. I can remember a few spankings, but nothing major. I got one belt spanking from my Dad when I was 7 or 8 years old and it was for something I did not do. After the truth came out, he was crushed and he never laid a hand or a belt on me again. But even that “belting” did not leave any marks and as I recall, it didn’t hurt much. I was more pissed off and hurt by the injustice of it than anything else. However, I did a lot of other stuff that deserved punishment, so I figured this was just evening out the scales. It did leave me with a strong inclination to investigate accusations before jumping to conclusions. So I guess it turned out to be a good life lesson.

I knew other kids who got a lot of “whoopins”. From what I could tell, it did not do much good and probably made them even worse. And I can remember when teachers and coaches regularly “paddled” kids or gave out “licks” for misbehaving. Men paddled the boys and women paddled the girls. Everyone wanted to get a few licks now and then just to fit in and I got a few, but not often. And if it was really serious, they told your parents. I only had one instance where my parents were brought in and I was already in high school by then. It wasn’t that bad. Some of us cut class, “borrowed” a boat and went out drinking beer at the lake. Actually it was epic and one of my prouder moments for which I really got my tail-end busted by the high school principal. He was a former coach and football star who was strong as a mule and tough as nails. Those licks left marks for awhile. Although it was painful, it was over quickly and didn’t really cause me to see the error of my ways. A couple of months of picking up trash on the side of the highway would have probably made a longer, more lasting impression.

There may well be a time and place for “physical intervention” with kids, but it’s rare and it should not be violent or delivered in anger. Some of my Christian brothers and sisters quote the Bible about corporal punishment being ordained by God and if you love your kids you’ll spank them when they misbehave. I call B.S. on that and remind them that the Bible also calls for stoning a disobedient child (Deut 21 v 18-21). Pretty sure that’s a felony these days. So let’s not quote scripture to justify “whoopin” our kids.

On the flip side of the argument, I fear that the pendulum may have swung too far in the other direction. We are now reaching the point where any level of physical punishment or even raising ones voice to a child is considered abusive. Basically, anything that is “negative” or makes the child “feel” bad about themselves is potentially abusive. I don’t think the touchy-feely, time-out, talk about it, let’s process it and understand why you’re being a little asshole approach is in the best interest of the child or society in general.

Like most things in life, the truth is somewhere between the two extremes. Adrian Peterson has become the poster child for one side. But let’s not stand by and allow another generation of children to become undisciplined, self-absorbed narcissists with no sense of right and wrong and no boundaries. There are enough of those out there already. I think the Bible gets it right when it comes to that reaping and sowing stuff.

Hero Dogs

If you have read my blog in the past, you know that I’m a sucker for dogs. This week there was another dog story and if you missed it here’s the link: http://news.yahoo.com/last-rescue-dog-ground-zero-9-11-125658339.html.

Bretagne is a 15-year old rescue dog who has been nominated for a Hero Dog Award for a lifetime of service. She was only 2-years old when her owner brought her up to NYC after 9/11 to help with search and rescue efforts. She was back in NYC last week, 13 years later.

There were a lot of search and rescue dogs there in September 2001. Bretagne is the only one still alive. She has gone gray and slowed down, but seems to be doing quite well for such a old dog. If she could talk, what would she say about the new skyscraper that stands so near where she once moved quickly and gracefully through the burned out rubble at Ground Zero searching for life or just what had been life before those planes hit the Towers? Does she remember comforting the rescue workers who knew that their efforts were more about recovery than rescue, but still held out hope that someone might be alive down there somewhere? Did she ever ask what happened or why?

Bretagne retired from search and rescue in 2008 and now serves as an ambassador for search and rescue dogs, visiting elementary schools to play with the children while others tell her story. Younger dogs have taken her place and they too will grow old. They will also find themselves searching for whatever is left after disaster strikes. Man’s best friend doing their best in a broken world. We could all learn a lot from our dogs.

Free Advice

We used to live in a town that had a great farmers’ market down on the square. During late spring and early summer, one could go there on a Saturday morning and not only buy local products but also see local characters on display. It was a farmers’ market with a mixture of art show, carnival, music concert, political rally and tailgating all thrown in for good measure. One of my favorite characters was this guy who sat at a card table with only two things on it. A tip jar and a sign that said “Free Advice”. You could ask him anything and he would solemnly ponder the question and then give an answer. The answer might reflect the wisdom of Solomon or be totally off-the-wall ridiculous and often hilarious. But he never cracked a smile or engaged in any conversation beyond, “What is your question? My advice is as follows….”

As a headhunter, I offer quite a bit of free advice to clients and candidates regarding the job market. I consider the free advice as an investment in building positive long-term business relationships and do my best to make sure that it is sound advice. And as I watch what’s going on in the world, I feel the need to offer some free advice about a number of issues. It’s unlikely that anyone will care, much less take action. But at least I tried and did so for free.

So here’s some free advice on a variety of topics which should be easily identified (but I’ll provide some points of reference just in case):

_Follow the money. (Want to get the bad guys in the Middle East? Want to solve the immigration problem? Want to figure out why Washington is so dysfunctional? Why is there so much coverage of the Ferguson MO shooting?.)

_Avoid confrontation with law enforcement officials. (Ferguson MO and lots of other places)

_Married men, do not go on the radio and talk about all of the women you’ve had sex with. (Nick Cannon, aka Mr. Mariah Carey)

_ Do not flip people off. (Johnny Manziel)

_Drill baby drill. (Energy independence…which also sticks it to the bad guys in the Middle East, see “follow the money” advice above).

_Do not trust politicians. (You already knew that…pick any example from Putin to Obama).

_Always get a second opinion. (My shoulder surgery was successful and recovery is going well.)

_Do not leave kids, or pets for that matter, in a hot car. (How many more unnecessary deaths will it take?)

_Don’t waste water. (Hello… we are running out of water in a lot of places.)

_Do not allow expenses to exceed revenue. (Starting with the Federal Government.)

_Get some exercise. (You know this is good advice.)

_Spend time with God and if a voice tells you to cut off someone’s head, it’s not God’s.

_Read a book instead of watching television. (Reality TV is not real.)

_Listen more than you talk. (One of the best pieces of advice you’ll ever get.)

I could go on, but most of us know what to do. Good advice is almost never anything we did not already know. Most of our missteps are not made out of ignorance. Thus my last piece of free advice: THINK.

Guys Hitting Girls

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that college and professional athletes having been making the headlines for beating up on women. One of those even struck close to home when a Texas Tech football player punched a woman in a pick-up basketball game. That this woman was a scholarship player on the Lady Raiders basketball team and was knocking the boys around pretty good, resulted in both athletes being penalized with partial season suspensions. But, the fact remains that an angry young man punched a woman in the face. Inexcusable.

So what’s up with all the violence against women? First of all, it’s nothing new. Secondly, it gets more publicity than it used to. And third, it probably is happening more often than it used to. Men have been hitting women forever. It’s a terrible fact of life on planet earth. I can honestly say that by the grace of God I did not grow up around it. Women were pretty much put on a pedestal and treated with respect on both sides of my family. Unfortunately, I haven’t always upheld those values and confess that I’ve done my share of verbal and emotional abusing. And that can be just as bad, if not worse, than physical abuse. But, I’ve never hit a woman.

That some families have a history of physical abuse is well documented. And it’s not uncommon for the kids to get beat up just as badly as their mothers. It’s a cycle and when young men get the message that hitting a woman is what men do and that somehow it works; then those young men are inclined to hit women. In a culture that openly and without sanction calls women “bitches” and “whores”, violence against women flows naturally.

And in a society that values money, sex and power over all else; many women find themselves riding on mans most sensitive nerve. And I don’t mean the one between his legs. I mean the one between his ears and its name is EGO. The male ego is powerful. It can drive men to do great things and it can drive men to do terrible things. It is no surprise that high profile male athletes are often involved in violent acts. And not just against women. Money, sex, power and EGO. The stuff that drives a man to push himself to the limits to succeed on the field can lead to bad things off the field. Especially when mixed with drugs and alcohol.

At the end of the day, guys hit girls for the same reasons that people use and abuse other people in a variety of ways. It’s the fallen human condition. Who’s worse? The pro football player who knocks out his fiancé and drags her off an elevator or the corporate executive who decides that it’s ok to allow kids in sweat shops to make his company’s merchandise? Who’s worse? The college athletes who take advantage of a drunken, passed-out coed or the middle-aged, family man who after tucking his kids into bed sits in the dark looking at pornographic images of young women on his laptop?

But first things first. Guys don’t hit girls. Period, end of discussion. From there, perhaps we can go to work on the deeper problems.


“The Roots of Violence: Wealth without work, Pleasure without conscience, Knowledge without character, Commerce without morality, Science without humanity, Worship without sacrifice, Politics without principles." - Gandhi