2016

"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”- William Arthur Ward

Every year around this time I review and grade the predictions I made in the previous December. Then I make my predictions for the coming year. Each year my predictions get worse. Be it sports, politics, world events or financial markets; my crystal ball is broken. Last year, I got a few predictions partially correct. The New England Patriots did win the Super Bowl. Lower energy prices kept the economy from going totally in the tank. A big logistics company bought a big trucking company, but not exactly as I predicted. Most everything else I got wrong.

I’ve noticed that a lot of magazines, newspapers and bloggers have now taken to making annual predictions. Most of them don’t look back a year later. And if they do, they only point out the predictions they got right or close to right. Predictions, especially off-the-wall predictions, tend to get “clicks” (no pun intended.) Readers are more likely to “click” on a headline that reads: “Hillary Won’t Be On The Ballot In November” than they are one that reads: “Clinton A Lock For the Democratic Nomination”.

So this year, I thought seriously about making some crazy predictions, just on the off chance one might be right. But, ended up deciding to take the more serious approach, knowing full well that I will likely be wrong again on most of them. So here we go with the 2016 predictions:

1. Hillary Clinton wins the election. (I’m not sure any Republican could win a national election these days.)

2. The U.S. economy muddles along. The second half of the year is better than the first half.

3. Oil prices stay below $50 barrel.

4. The Arizona Cardinals beat the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.

5. The Chicago Cubs win the World Series over the Houston Astros

6. Jordan Spieth does not win a major this year.

7. “Spotlight” wins the Academy Award for Best Motion Picture.

8. The Supreme Court will rule against the University of Texas’ affirmative action admissions policy (Fisher v. University of Texas)

9. Terrorists attacks against Western targets will escalate in 2016.

10. Federal Debt will remain at levels above 100% of GDP.

In other words, 2016 looks like more of the same. God help us.

Christmas 2015

If you’ve read some of my previous Christmas season posts, you know that I’m not really into Christmas. At least not what Christmas has become in 21st Century America. As a Christian, I’ve tried to hang on to the religious significance of Christmas. This even though I know that Christ wasn’t born on December 25 and the Wise Men did not visit the Baby Jesus in that manger in Bethlehem, but quite some time later. And we’re not sure where or even how many of them showed up. Questionable traditions notwithstanding, I remain persuaded that Jesus is who He says He is and the message of the Gospels is true.

So I am a believer. But this Christmas there does not seem to be much “Joy To The World”. It’s not just the recent events in Paris and San Bernardino. They are part of it, but enough has been said about all of that. Such events are representative of the fallen, broken world in which we live. A world that leaves us with hard questions and numerous doubts. For those of us living in a place and time that provides the highest standard of living in the history of the world, we look for answers that do not rock the status quo boat. Most of us are more interested in our bank account, our time off or our waistline than we are in life’s big questions. We turn Christmas into a Holiday Season for family, fun and gift-giving. And that’s ok, up to a point. It doesn’t get any better than watching the little ones on Christmas morning as they discover what Santa Claus left under the tree. But grown-ups will spend far more time discussing which team will “win it all” than they will discussing what does “it all” mean.

We are told that the most important thing is to be happy, to feel good about ourselves and the world around us. And the “Holiday Season” does its best to make us feel that way. But, if you read the rest of the gospel story you know that Jesus did not define joy and happiness on the world’s terms. In fact, He turned the world upside down. Which is why most of what we do during the “Holiday Season” doesn’t have much to do with why He really came or what He really did.


"Do you think I came to bring peace on earth? No, I tell you, but division." Luke 12:51

And The PC Police Came Knocking

Well it was bound to happen. Actually had a prospective candidate tell me that after reading my last blog post he did not want to be represented by our firm. That it was “Quite offensive to generalize an entire group of people with that post.”

Well, I thought it was clearly directed at those people who take certain verses from the Quran out of context and use them to justify violent behavior. I have said as much about people who misuse and abuse verses from the Bible. It’s just that for the past few weeks, we have witnessed a particular group of people, Radicalized Muslims, committing horrible acts of violence for what they deem to be a higher calling from God himself. And as directed by the words of His prophet as they have chosen to interpret their sacred scriptures. So, I suppose I am generalizing when I say that those Muslims who believe in a radicalized, perverted version of Islam are dangerous people. Even those who may not “pull the trigger” are part of the problem. Scorpions are scorpions whether they sting you or not.

To be clear. I do not have a problem with Muslims, or any group as long as their beliefs do not conflict with my life, liberty and pursuit of happiness. But we have a self-identified group of people out there who share a very specific ideology that instructs them to kill people in order to further their religious goals and objectives. It just so happens that this is a sub-group of the Muslim faith. Are all Muslims terrorists? Of course not. Are all terrorists Muslims? Maybe not all, but these days, for the most part the answer is a resounding yes. Just don’t let the PC Police hear you say that.

It Is What It Is

A scorpion and a frog meet on the bank of a stream and the
scorpion asks the frog to carry him across on its back. The
frog asks, "How do I know you won't sting me?" The scorpion
says, "Because if I do, I will die too."

The frog is satisfied, and they set out, but in midstream,
the scorpion stings the frog. The frog feels the onset of
paralysis and starts to sink, knowing they both will drown,
but has just enough time to gasp "Why?"

Replies the scorpion: "It’s my nature..."



"I will cast terror into the hearts of those who disbelieve. Therefore strike off their heads and strike off every fingertip of them" Quran 8:12

Performance Part III ... Tail Wagging

Back to the “Performance” conversation. To recap, in Performance I the point was made that the distribution of talent does not follow a normal or bell-shaped curve. The talent curve actually shows a high performance peak that flattens out very quickly to an “average” line that is reflective of the vast majority of people, The Big Middle. This is not to say that some in the Big Middle aren’t more talented than others, but the differences aren’t as great as one would expect if the talent distribution looked more like a bell curve. In Performance II we considered the high-performance end of the curve, The Best. Any successful organization has to have some of The Best. Without some of The Best you just cannot win over the long-run. In this last installment of “Performance”, we address The Big Middle and that group down at the end of the tail, The Worst.

Every organization has A Big Middle. This is where most of the work gets done. We’ve already made the case that there are very few high performers. If 20% of your people are above the “flat line” you are doing quite well. And in most cases less than a quarter of those “high performers” are truly exceptional. But here’s the key: The high performers, The Best, will elevate the performance of the Big Middle which in turn elevates the performance of The Best. We see this in sports and entertainment. A great player will make the average players better and as those average players make more plays, the great player’s game is elevated. A great actor will elevate the performance of an entire cast which in turn elevates the great actor’s performance. This is the beauty of having high performers on a team and having a team where most of its members are able and willing to do their jobs.

Which brings us to The Worst. If you want to cripple a team’s performance, just hang on to The Worst. The Worst 5 or 10% of your organization will do more harm than all of the good produced by everyone else. And if one of The Worst happens to be a key position, it’s a killer. Again, look at sports. Top teams avoid having any of The Worst on the field and certainly not in a key position. You can’t hide one of The Worst. Your customers will notice them, your competition will exploit them and the rest of your team will resent them.

Great teams and great companies work on “the tails”. Attract and retain The Best and get rid of The Worst. Avoid hiring The Worst in the first place and if one slips through the cracks, get rid of them. And face up to the reality that some number of The Big Middle may turn into The Worst and sometimes even one of The Best can become one of The Worst. Deal with it and deal with it quickly. Don’t let the wrong end of the tail wag your dog.

“Public hangings are teaching moments. Every company has to do it. A teaching moment is worth a thousand CEO speeches. CEOs can talk and blab each day about culture, but the employees all know who the jerks are. They could name the jerks for you. It's just cultural. People just don't want to do it.”- Jack Welch

Of Course It's War

So what is THE answer when it comes to dealing with ISIS? The entire Jihadist movement represented by ISIS, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram and the like has world powers running for cover and searching for answers. I don’t have THE answer, but I do recommend that we take a long, hard look at history as we ponder our options.

History tells us that when a group of people becomes totally committed to an ideology that is characterized by dictatorial control and a worldview that seeks to impose its particular form of tyranny on all of humanity, millions of people end up dead. One way or the other, this is the outcome. Communism ultimately collapsed under the weight of its own bureaucracy and failure to give the people what they wanted. But not before millions died. Fascism was defeated on the battlefield, but it took the most awful war in the history of mankind and the use of WMDs to bring it to an end. Millions died.

Jihadism or Radical Islam is now upon us. And it is upon us in an age where technology and weaponry make it possible for the highly committed few of them to terrorize the mostly confused many of us. However this plays out, it will be bloody and millions will die before it’s over. No one will get elected saying those words which is why no one will say them. You can get elected charging up a hill or leading the greatest armed force ever assembled. You can get elected by promising to bring our troops home and staying out of foreign wars. And you can build a lasting legacy by tearing down a wall that is about to collapse. But we are not likely to find anyone willing to tell it like it is today, because it is so much worse than we imagined.

“And the winepress was trodden outside the city, and blood flowed from the winepress, as high as a horse’s bridle, for 1,600 stadia.” – Revelation 14:20 (ESV)

Performance Part II…”The Best”

Last time I presented the idea that human performance is not represented in the classic Bell curve or normal distribution. In fact, studies have shown that the majority of people are “average” and there’s not much difference between those in the “big middle”. Assuming you have a reasonably competent “big middle”, organizational success tends to be driven by working on the “tails”. Attract and retain the best. Identify and remove the worst. So, in the next few weeks we are going to address three subjects: The Best, The Big Middle and The Worst.

The Big Middle is the foundation. But it takes “The Best “ in leadership roles to build AND maintain that foundation. At some point, any successful organization has had one or more of “The Best” people in charge. And, at some point, any failing organization is lacking some of “The Best” in key positions. I see it all of time in transportation and logistics. Companies spring up under a smart, dynamic, energetic owner and grow profitably…up to a point. Eventually, the organization becomes too large for one person to manage, and without a few more of “The Best” in key positions, begins to flounder.

There’s no set rule regarding how many of “The Best” an organization needs in order to be successful. Some might argue that, starting at the top, it would be great if every role which has significant leadership responsibility or a major impact on the bottom line could be filled by one of “The Best” or at least someone who has the potential to become one of “The Best”. The reality is that no organization has one of “The Best” in every key position. There just aren’t enough of those to go around. But, you need enough of them to separate your organization from the competition. Note, I did not say that you need enough of them to be competitive. You can compete, at least for awhile, with a solid “Big Middle” of average people who show up and do their job every day and that includes some of your executives. But if you are going to “separate your organization from the competition” you need some of those “Best” performers, the exceptional top five percenters.

“Five percent of the people think;
ten percent of the people think they think;
and the other eighty-five percent would rather die than think.”
-Thomas Edison