The Next President of The United States of America

In the aftermath of the Republican and Democratic conventions, one thing is clear…our two party system is FUBAR. If you don’t know what that means, look it up. This too shall pass and when it’s all said and done, more will be said than done. Which is probably a good thing. But the next four years will be interesting. If Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot or his tax returns reveal some bad stuff, Clinton will win in an epic landslide. If Trump can get his mouth and his campaign under control and there are no ugly skeletons in his financial disclosures, he’s got a puncher’s chance. If Clinton keeps getting hammered on the Clinton Foundation, emails and Benghazi; Trump has a chance. And if there are more negative revelations about Clinton shenanigans, Trump has more than a chance.

But, my money, not necessarily my vote, is on Clinton. Trump is starting to scare too many people. And Trump is starting to anger too many people. Clinton already has a lot of people mad at her and the idea of Hillary Clinton as President, scares some folks as well. But those columns are pretty much filled out. Trump is rapidly adding to his detractors. The negatives for him are going up faster than the positives. It’s not looking good for The Donald.

People mostly vote in their self-interest. And they usually base their political leanings on a very select and limited number of key issues. Once they’ve dialed in on the candidate or party that is most likely to support their position on their most important issues, then they are inclined to agree or at least not strongly disagree with their candidate or party’s position on all of “the other” issues. Trump and Clinton have their core supporters. The key to winning the election is the undecided “moderate middle”, those who’ve not yet decided who to vote for or whether to even vote at all.

If Trump is smart he will focus National Security, “Big government” and the Economy. He needs to be careful with immigration and trade. The undecided moderate middle isn’t as concerned about immigration as the far right. “Building The Wall” isn’t going to get Trump many new votes. To the extent that immigration is about protecting us from terrorism or violent felons, it’s a point worth discussing. Otherwise, drop it. Same with trade. Sure it plays well in certain pockets of America where folks think their jobs have been unfairly exported to other countries. But the reality is that we live in a global economy and a lot of people’s jobs depend on participation in the global economy. We probably do need tougher negotiating on trade deals and have given up too much in the past. But, I don’t think it’s an issue that’s going to move the “moderate middle” votes to the Trump side. Trade is an important part of the economic discussion, but the way it’s being discussed now is not very productive.

Instead talk about National Security, which really means dealing with terrorism, mainly Radical Islamic terrorism. Now you’ve got people’s attention. The Obama track record, and by association Clinton’s, is one that Trump should hammer on. This whole issue of what to do about terrorism is of major concern to most Americans and there is a strong sense that the Clinton/Obama approach has failed. This needs to be a part of every Trump message and he needs to stay on point with it. And he should be careful not to overplay the “you can’t trust Hillary” card. Let others beat her up over emails and Benghazi. Trump needs to move to higher ground and stay there for awhile.

Secondly, Big Government. Most folks NOT on “the left” tend to see government as NOT the answer to their problems. The idea of “tax and spend” , more regulations, more government programs and more “free stuff” for certain groups does not find much favor with hard-working, tax-paying citizens. Trump needs to go after the track record of Obama (Obamacare for example) and the Clinton proposals which include several planks from the Sanders “free stuff” platform.

Lastly, the Economy. Trump doesn’t have to say much here other than to point out the anemic economic recovery under Obama and that we are just keeping our heads above a recession. Over-regulation and failed programs such as Obamacare contribute to it. If you must talk about trade, do it here and in the appropriate context. This is also the place to talk about education, training and infrastructure. All keys to economic performance. Those hard-working, tax-paying citizens in the “moderate middle” will listen.

But, alas, I don’t see Trump getting “on message” and certainly not staying “on message”. The Donald has proven himself to be a loose cannon. And then there are the tax returns. If he doesn’t release them, it’s over. If he does release them, it’s probably over. No telling what sort of snakes and spiders are crawling around in those returns. We get the leaders we deserve and by the Republicans allowing Trump to become their presidential candidate, they have handed the crown to Hillary Clinton. The real question is can they recover by 2020?

(And as you may have guessed by now, I am in the undecided moderate middle, sort of. I will not vote for Clinton. So that part is decided. I probably won’t vote for Trump. I may vote for Gary Johnson as a protest or I may not vote at all.)

Another Texas Summer

“If I owned Hell and Texas, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” General Philip Sheridan

About this time every year, I wonder why I live in Texas. It’s hot and it isn’t going to cool off much for at least another 6 weeks. And, so far, this hasn’t even been a bad summer. We’ve had some rain and up until recently, the heat has been tolerable. But, it’s still a Texas summer and it always wears you down. By late August you’re basically a zombie.

This time of year Colorado and New Mexico fill up with Texans trying to escape the heat, if only for a few days. Texans love the mountains. The mountains are beautiful and, more importantly, they are cool. I used to live in Western Montana and being in the mountains is good for your soul. Even when it’s cold and your tired of winter. And in the summertime, it just doesn’t get any better.

So why does a Texan who has a choice come back and live here? It’s too hot in the summer time. The cities are overcrowded and the traffic is terrible. Yeah, there may be no state income tax, but property and sales taxes are sky high. There’s a lot of crime and it’s a dangerous place. Why are all of these companies relocating to Texas and why do all of these non-Texans want to be here? I guess because it’s Texas.

Texas is like a big, beautiful, bad woman that excites you and makes you uncomfortable at the same time. She’s the one you’re always leaving or coming back to. That’s just who she is. Thank God for air-conditioning.

One Heart At A Time

Our nation is in a bad place right now. At the extremes, we see it played out in Minnesota as a white officer of the law shoots an innocent black man sitting in his car with his girlfriend and a child in the backseat. And, just when we think this is the worst, an angry young black man guns down white policemen in downtown Dallas. Not that long ago, another angry young man, this one white; walks into a church and kills nine black people who were there for prayer and bible study. The list could go on and on. This is madness.

“If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?” - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Solzhenitsyn was right. The line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And we now live in a world where that line is too easily crossed. We have lost our way. Our hearts are dark and darkness is where we are headed. Every issue is now reduced to US vs.THEM. It cuts across politics, religion, race, economics and social issues. It’s all or nothing. If we disagree then one side has to destroy the other. There is no trust. Only fear and paranoia and anger. And all of that leads to violence and a people slipping further into the darkness. If positive change is to come, it must start with our hearts. And this means you and me. One heart at a time.

Mid-Year Thoughts and Commentary

“Suppose our failures occur, not in spite of what we are doing, but precisely because of it.”- Dallas Willard


_The economic forecast for 2016 was for more of the same. Slow or no growth, bobbing along just above recession levels. That certainly seems to be the case. My sense is that it’s a bit worse than expected and the outlook for the second half of 2016 and 2017 is becoming more negative.

_We will experience more “Orlandos”. Whether a function of religious extremism, homophobia, racism, easy access to high capacity firearms, mental instability or a combination of these and other dysfunctions… in today’s world violence is the result. We can take steps to control it, to limit the carnage. But those who hate and choose to kill people will always figure out ways to get it done.

_Brexit is a big deal, but not surprising. Just over 50% of the folks who voted in the UK would like to build a wall and turn the clock back. My prediction is that there will be another referendum and next time just over 50% of the voters will choose to remain in the EU. And the chaos will continue.

_The Baylor situation says a lot about our culture. That the leadership of any university, much less a Baptist, bible-thumping, born-again bunch of true believers would go so far down the rabbit hole of sports worship that they end up covering up sexual assaults, protecting the guilty and ignoring or even trying to intimidate the victims is an incredible and terrifying story. How many more Baylors and Penn States will it take to change the prevailing win-at-all-cost, protect-this-house-no-matter-what mindset?

_Trump vs. Clinton. You just can’t make this stuff up. It’s crazy-time in politics. I don’t like either one of them, but at the end of the day, I’m thinking about future Supreme Court appointments. We know there will be one for sure and most likely one more during the next President’s first term. There could even be a third. Yep, it is a big deal… a very big deal.

_Even in a sluggish economy it’s hard to find qualified people to fill jobs. The big question for the next 20 years is going to be “Who’s going to do the work?”

_E-commerce is re-defining the supply chain. The old ways of bringing products to the market: showing, selling, buying and delivery…they are changing. E-tail has arrived.

_Healthcare, education and infra-structure. We better get about addressing these three issues or all the rest of it won’t matter much. Unbelievable that we cannot seem to figure it out. We can’t just throw money at the problems, but it’s going to take a lot of money. It’s also going to take better plans and better management. Two things at which our government totally sucks.

_On a positive note, the U.S.A. remains the best place on the planet, warts and all. God Bless America.

Extremism

What this Muslim has to say in the aftermath of Orlando should be on the front page of every newspaper and the cover of every magazine...

"One of the reasons we got here is because there is a huge disconnect in too much of the Muslim world between what we want to see, and what we're actually capable of bringing about. Much of the Muslim world is dominated by violent, oppressive governments, some of which spend liberally to support their interpretation of Islam. Sadly, they have enough cash to crush more compassionate and intelligent alternatives."

For the full article go to http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/12/opinions/orlando-shooting-moghul/index.html

What Is (__________) Worth?

A few weeks ago I introduced a decision-making model that focuses on Motivation, Options, Risk/Reward and Recovery (MORR).
I think it works better than a list of Pros and Cons or the old Franklin T. Life’s choices are rarely “either or”. And if you do not clearly understand you own motivations, you’ll tend to overlook options, underestimate risks and overestimate rewards. Then there is the whole concept of Recovery. What does it take to recover if things don’t work out? If you are honest with yourself and go through this process of evaluating choices, I’m convinced you’ll make better ones. I’ve learned the hard way. Believe me.

But there has to be something else at work here. Values. Your motivation, the options you are willing to consider, the calculation of risk and rewards and what you might be willing to do in order to recover from a poor choice….all of these are dependent upon your values. Your values determine “what’s worth it”. The most undecided candidates are always those who are struggling to balance conflicting values. The specific issues and questions vary, but they all really go back to one big question: How much value do you put on money and career? And it gets complicated because what you do about “money and career” has a major impact on everything else you value. Some of those impacts are positive and some are negative.

I think it’s worth noting that younger candidates seem to be asking “the big question” a lot more often these days. And this has major implications for employers. Work-life balance is a huge issue for Millennials. What sort of work they do, where they do it, who they do it for and how much time they spend doing it are equally if not more important than money or career. Most Millennials are not willing to just do whatever it takes for money, career advancement or even plain old job security. Over time they will be forced to adjust their work-life balance expectations to the realities of the marketplace. But, make no mistake, the marketplace is being forced to adjust its work-life balance reality to meet some of those expectations.

Are there still companies out there that demand everything from their employees? And are there still people out there willing to sign up for that. Of course. One of the most successful, Amazon, is known for being a grinder and they seem to be finding enough willing “grind-ees” to keep their amazing enterprise thriving. But there is a shift in attitudes toward work. More people are asking the big question….”What is __________ worth?” You have to fill in the blank and you have to decide. Those decisions will be driven by your values. And I mean your real values. Not what you tell your family and friends. Not what you want to believe about yourself. Your true values will be revealed by the choices you make. And those choices may be wrong, but they always tell the truth about what __________ is worth to you.

“Your beliefs become your thoughts,
Your thoughts become your words,
Your words become your actions,
Your actions become your habits,
Your habits become your values,
Your values become your destiny.”
― Mahatma Gandhi

Ali

“Forget about likes and dislikes. They are of no consequence. Just do what must be done. This may not be happiness but it is greatness.” – George Bernard Shaw

I’m old enough to remember when a lot of people (mostly white people) did not think Muhammad Ali was great at all, much less the greatest. My dad loved Cassius Clay the boxer, but Muhammad Ali the draft dodger, not so much. Even though the old man thought the Vietnam War was a big mistake and had an almost Oliver Stone-ish idea that it was all about money and politics, he believed that if you got drafted you served. If not with a gun in your hands then at least in some way. Dodging the draft was not an option.

I disagreed with my dad when it came to Ali. There was a revolution going on in the late 60’s and I was inclined to agree with the revolutionaries. There was a lot wrong about this country back then, just like there is a lot wrong about it now. The civil rights movement was necessary. Protesting the Vietnam War was necessary. And challenging the establishment is always a good thing, especially if you’re still young and hopeful that there must be a better way. Ali symbolized all of that and he was willing to sacrifice his best years as an athlete for what he believed in.

Ali eventually went back into the ring and proved himself to truly be the greatest of all time. He also became a global ambassador for peace and justice. After he was stricken with Parkinson’s he became even more beloved. Had he remained healthy and outspoken, who knows how things might have turned out. Muhammad Ali was special. He was large enough for a unique time in history. A world champion who took a stand on the most important issues of his day and paid the price. RIP Champ.