Provide For The Common Defense

In the past I’ve commented about guns, gun violence and mass shootings. For the record:
_I’m not a member of the NRA
_I do own quite a few guns including a couple of semi-automatic handguns.
_I do not own an AR-15 or similar type of weapon (nor do I have plans to own one).
_I do have a concealed carry license. But I rarely carry a gun.
_I do have a pistol in my vehicle
_I have never shot at anyone, don’t want to and hope I never will.
_I live out in the country and I am my own protection. I have a gun at both ends of the house and out back in my office. I believe it’s better to have a gun and not need it, than to need one and not have it.
_Since I’ve been old enough to vote, I’ve voted for both Democrats and Republicans. Right now Republicans hold a 60-40 edge. And the older I get, the more I lean that direction. Pretty common for old white guys, even those who used to have long-hair and protest everything.

We have a serious problem in this country. And it’s not just guns, but guns are certainly part of the problem. It’s time to face up to the fact that any place where two or more are gathered there is a chance that someone will attack them. That someone can attack them with an AR-15 using high-capacity magazine fire power makes the problem even worse. So take the AR-15’s away or at least reduce firepower (and then figure out how to enforce it…good luck with that).

Fine. Now what? Little Johnny’s meds aren’t working so he takes daddy’s shotgun and kills 2 or 3 of his classmates instead of 15 or 20. Are we going to have a parade? Or do we just ramp up the gun ban conversation?

And when Little Johnny can’t get a gun what will he do? If he can drive, he’ll just run over a bunch of kids. He watches the news. Or he’ll go online and learn how to make a bomb. He may be crazy, but he’s not stupid. Or maybe he just torches the place or poisons the sloppy joes in the cafeteria.

I don’t think there is one right answer. But I think there are a number of steps in the right direction. In my opinion they include the following:
_ Armed protection wherever people are gathered. (Effective armed protection, not a deputy hiding outside waiting for help.) We have better protection at my little church on Sunday mornings for less than 100 people than those kids had down in Florida. (I don’t carry my gun, but we have a couple of law enforcement members who do. And if they weren’t there, I would be carrying mine.)
_Raise the age limit to 21 for the purchase of semi-automatic weapons ( handguns or rifles) and require stricter background checks…maybe it’s double or triple checks and a longer waiting period.
_Make fixing the NICS (National Instant Criminal Background Check System) a priority. There is no excuse for there being any gaps here other than the usual government incompetence. My guess is they’ve spent millions with some consulting firm that has milked this project for all it’s worth.
_And I’m ok with a national gun registry. I know there are plenty of people who see this as an invasion of privacy and the first step to gun confiscation. But guns are something we need to keep up with. Where are they and who has them?
_When kids are at risk, get them some help and keep an eye on them. “The Village” failed Nikolas Cruz and he declared war on it. He even warned them. No one listened.

I’ll let Andrew Pollack wrap this up. His daughter was shot and killed at Parkland. If you haven’t seen or listened to this…it’s well worth 4 minutes of your time.
https://youtu.be/u_2947uZ7U8

The Next Decade...and Beyond

With those wild swings in the stock market we tend to worry about the right now. How much money did I lose last week? How much will I lose next week? Where are interest rates going? What about inflation? Is our government going to implode?

But perhaps we should think longer term. What does the bigger picture look like? Now nine years into the second decade of the 21st Century (yes 2018 is the 9th year of this decade), it’s not too soon to give serious thought about the next decade, the 2020’s. In fact, as a business person if you have not been thinking about it, it may be too late. I don’t have a crystal ball and I’m not one of those 160 IQ futurists who have the next 100 years all figured out. But, I am paying attention. There’s a lot of information out there and one can drown in data. One can also find numbers that support just about any position on any subject. But occasionally you get hit with numbers that only point in one direction.

Now I will admit that there is a chance these could turn out to be wrong, but as far as I can tell they are pretty accurate. It’s basic math. In the United States, 80 million Baby Boomers are riding off into the sunset. 150 million Gen X-ers and Gen Z-ers are in or will soon be in the marketplace. While their purchasing power as well their purchasing habits may be more muted than those of the Baby Boomer generation, these 150 million are still going to need some place to live, things to sit on and sleep on, clothes to wear and food to eat. They will need products and services to cook, clean, repair and sanitize themselves and their stuff. They will need to be entertained, transported, doctored and lawyered. They will need to house, care for and eventually bury their elders. And they will try to find the answers to life’s big questions. That means they will probably spend a lot of money until they figure out that is not the answer.

By 2030, the United States is projected to have a population of over 350,000,000. That is up from around 320,000,000 in 2015. The global population is projected to be over 8.5 Billion! The fastest growth areas are Africa, India, Indonesia and Mexico. The United States population growth will be very dependent on immigration and given the policy debates surrounding that issue, it’s a wild card. But if anything, I could see us ending up with even more than 350 million people here by 2030. Compared to the rest of the world, we have the best deal going. Even the Republicans and Democrats can’t screw it up totally. (Well, maybe they can. There is that “debt” issue. But we can always print more money, right? Not to worry.)

So the good news for business owners is that there is going to be plenty of demand out there. People will need AND want lots of stuff and services. The challenges will be adapting to a changing work force and disruptive technologies. Those businesses that can adapt, adjust and overcome, AND do so quickly and frequently, are going to win and win big. Those that cannot will be eaten by those that can. The 2020’s…the decade of opportunity and eat or be eaten.


“I think there's every reason this 21st century will be much happier.”- Dalai Lama

Shadows of Truth

So the “Nunes Memo” appears on Ground Hog Day. And just like Punxsutawney Phil, the Truth saw it’s shadow. Phil’s shadow means six more weeks of hard winter. Even though the groundhog’s forecasts are wrong more than 50% of the time, literally a coin flip predicts weather more accurately than Phil, we all pay attention to Phil and his shadow. And yesterday the world paid attention to the “the Memo”. And now the debate rages on as to what it really means. I think it’s fair to say there are shadows of truth here. Many on The Right are touting it as the “nail in the coffin” for Mueller’s investigation into Russian collusion. While The Left cries foul and claims it to be just more Trump-ublican chicanery designed to deflect and divert attention.

As with most things, especially political things, the truth is probably somewhere in between. But we are not likely to get to the middle anytime soon. We are living in the shadows of truth these days. We know it’s there somewhere because we see it’s shadow. Like a cloud passing over the earth. But when we look up, the cloud has moved and changed its shape. Even its shadow is different.

Twenty-five years ago the movie “Ground Hog Day” came out. As you may recall, Bill Murray plays the role of an arrogant, jaded weatherman from Pittsburgh who is forced to go out to Punxsutawney and cover Ground Hog Day. He ends up in a looping time-warp reliving Ground Hog Day while indulging in all sorts of bad behavior and dying in various ways only to re-awake again on Ground Hog Day. Rinse and repeat. Ultimately he is forced to stop and think about his life and his priorities and his values.

If feels like we too are living in a looping time-warp. We get up every day and listen to the same competing, totally biased narratives. We occasionally catch a glimpse of shadows that appear to be those of the truth. But then they are blown away by the next wave of accusation, innuendo and opinion. With mid-term elections coming up the battle will rage on. And after the mid-terms the battle will continue to rage, because…gee whiz…the Presidential election is just around the corner. And the loop will just keep on looping.

“There is no way that this winter is ever going to end as long as this groundhog keeps seeing his shadow.” Phil Connors (Bill Murray), from the movie “Ground Hog Day”.

A Republic at Risk

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.”
― Alexis de Tocqueville


The French diplomat, Alexis de Tocqueville, wrote a lot about America and the Republic for which it stands. He had some pretty good observations. Sometimes it takes an outsider to see what those on the inside cannot see. Tocqueville’s America was the early-mid 19th century America. He saw it, warts and all. He saw a land of great promise, but with its problems. All in all a grand experiment, the outcome of which Tocqueville reckoned would depend upon the people having a strong moral foundation and sharing common principles and values. Even still, the shadow of slavery, the treatment of Native Americans, the American obsession with money and the ultimate consequences of equality were just a few of the issues Tocqueville pointed out. He admired the idea of America, but recognized that there was no guarantee of success.

So here we are in 2018 with a government that doesn’t work. An economy that sort of works, at least for now for some of us, in spite of the government. A people divided, with fundamental differences about right and wrong, how lives should be lived and the role of government in those lives. And professional politicians who take our money and use it against us. I fear Tocqueville may have been right about Congress bribing the public with the public’s money.

Something’s Gotta Give

In June 2009 there were 6.6 unemployed people for every job opening. In October 2017 there were only 1.1 unemployed people for every job opening. This number is lower than pre-Great Recession levels which got down to 1.4 in the Spring of 2007.

If you are an employer trying to hire people to work in transportation/logistics related jobs, you have a problem. A huge problem. It’s not just truck drivers, maintenance technicians and warehouse workers. High Road Partners specializes in recruiting management and executive talent for the industry. I can assure that candidate availability has never been worse. If you are looking for experienced management or executive talent with a specific industry segment background, good luck. The days of interviewing a half-dozen candidates and then narrowing it down to two or three finalists before making a decision (and, oh by the way, taking a couple of months to get through “the process”) are over. You may still go through “the process”, but it won’t be with highly-qualified candidates who meet your job specs.

And it’s not likely to get much better. Even if the economy cools off a bit. There aren’t a lot of new people entering the workforce with the goal of working in transportation/logistics. Certainly not if it involves actually managing people, especially if those people are truck drivers, dock workers or maintenance techs. That’s the hardest part of this business, so no thanks.

So what can an employer expect and how should they respond to this candidate shortage? It really comes down to keeping the employees you want to keep and hiring the new people you want to hire. There are some things you can do, including nothing, but I wouldn’t recommend that approach. Realistically you only have three options: pay more, expect less or make your company a better place to work. Most likely it’s a combination of all three. If you choose to hold the line on compensation AND expect to hire and retain top caliber employees AND treat them the same way you’ve been treating them for the past 25 years you are just in denial. It won’t work. Something’s got to give and it won’t be top quality employees whose skills and experience are in demand.

So Long Rooster, Hello Dog.

“If a dog will not come to you after having looked you in the face, you should go home and examine your conscience.”
― Woodrow Wilson

So we come to the end of another year. 2017 was the Year of the Rooster. 2018 is the Year of the Dog. The Earth Dog to be more specific. Last one was in 1958. The year of Sputnik and the invention of the microchip. 2018 should be interesting.

Now it’s time to grade my 2017 predictions and go back out on that limb for 2018.

Here’s what we said about 2017:

1. This one is easy…Alabama wins the National Championship
Close but close doesn’t count. Congrats to Clemson. Grade: C+

2. E-commerce retail sales will exceed $450 Billion
The final numbers aren’t in yet, but I think we will exceed $450 Billion. Grade: A

3. Oil prices go up a bit but remain under $60
Pretty accurate forecast. Grade: A
(Dec 27: A last gasp push..and the price briefly went over $60 before backing off...so this grade drops to C+)

4. The Cleveland Indians beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series.
The Dodgers got there but the Indians really let me down. Grade: B-

5. GDP growth at 3%
We’re going to get close, but for the year will be under 3%. Grade: B

6. Moonlight wins Academy Award for Best Movie
Yes. Grade: A

7. New England beats Dallas in the Super Bowl.
New England got there and won. Dallas, Atlanta…same difference… B+

8. Going out on a limb here, but the next Supreme Court Justice will not be a white guy.
Whiffed on this one. Grade: F

9. Significant M&A activity in the final mile delivery space
Not really. I still think it will come eventually….Grade: D

10. Trump gets a lot done in his first year and drives the mainstream media crazy.
Welp, he got some things done and he definitely drove the media crazy….Grade: B+


*********************************************************************


Now the fun part. What will 2018 bring?

1. I am going with Alabama again to win the Natty. Just can’t bet against Saban.

2. GDP growth tails off in the second half of the year. A shortage of workers and the mid-term election cycle put a damper on the economy.

3. The Post wins Best Movie. How could it not?

4. I think oil prices just bump along at current levels, maybe down a bit.

5. China will handle N. Korea.

6. The Democrats win big in the mid-terms.

7. We finally pass an infrastructure spending bill.

8. The Mueller investigation goes nowhere, but keeps on going.

9. Big news on the UFO question.

10. The Dodgers meet the Astros again in the World Series. Dodgers win. (And, of course, New England wins the Super Bowl. Doesn’t matter who they play.)

The Christmas Bucket

I got a day away from it all this past week. No work, no TV, no internet, no phone calls, emails or text messages. Just me and my bucket and my bed.

I guess it’s just part of the holiday season and my wife’s willful participation is said holiday season. You see, she likes to shop and hang out with her friends and co-workers, meet and greet and press the flesh. In the meantime, I stay in my little bubble. The office, our house, the property, the dogs. Limited exposure, frequent hand-washing, avoiding the sneezing, coughing unwashed masses… and, as I result, I stay pretty healthy. Most of the time.

She started throwing up and out (both ends) and running a fever on Sunday. Frankly, I thought I did yeoman’s duty in the emptying of buckets, fetching clean towels, fluids and more toilet paper; administering over-the-counter medicines (which had, at best, placebic effect on the moderating of her various aches, pains and un-ending bodily excretions); and, in general, being a sympathetic and comforting caregiver, present at all times, assuring her that she was not going to die.

By late Monday my wife was still miserable, but agreed that she was not going to die. The worst was over. There was no more worse to come out and she just lay there on the couch watching Hallmark Christmas movies, the dogs around her enjoying the warm stillness of a sick person’s body.

And then I started to not feel so good. A bit of a headache and nausea. OCD that I tend to be at times, I decided to work out. We have an exercise room with a treadmill, elliptical, and some free weights. After working up a sweat on the treadmill I started to hit the weights and then had to think better of it. Went to the bathroom, the first of many trips to come over the next 24 hours. Resumed the workout, only to take another break shortly thereafter for the same purpose. Deciding that perhaps rest might be advisable, I cut the workout short, cleaned up and decided to go sit with the wife and watch Hallmark Christmas movies.

After about 15 minutes of a Hallmark Christmas movie I felt really sick. And I knew it was more than just the Hallmark Christmas movie that was making me sick. I told my wife that I needed to go lie down. And, thankfully out of the fog of her sickness she suggested that I take “the bucket”. I said, “Not necessary, just a headache and some nausea. I’ll be ok.” She rallied herself and threatened me with “Take the bucket, I am in no shape to clean up your mess…”. So I took the bucket.

Good thing I had the bucket. I got really sick. Good thing it’s a big bucket. Seriously, I got really sick. And for the next 24 hours: no work, no TV, no internet, no phone calls, emails or text messages. If I had not been so sick, it would have been a great vacation. Just me and my bucket and my bed. And my dogs. They abandoned my wife and crawled up around me; now a sicker, warmer body I suppose.

Apparently this bug is making the rounds. With the holiday season upon us this is going to get worse before it gets better. Schools around here are closing. Too many sick kids. Emergency rooms are filling up with people who think they are dying (they are not…well…maybe some will). Someone suggested that perhaps this is just God’s way of slowing us down during the holidays and forcing us to take time for reflection and meditation. I don’t think so. If anything, I think it’s the Devil delivering his version of Christmas cheer to one and all. Forget the Christmas wish list. Just keep a bucket close by.