2015....Just Keep On Running

"It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”
-The Red Queen (Alice in Wonderland, Lewis Carroll)

Time to revisit my predictions for 2014. How did I do? And what lies ahead in 2015?

Here are the 2014 predictions (published December 26, 2013) and my official grades.

Prediction Number 1:
This one is a layup…Tiger Woods does not win a major.

Result: Nailed it. A+

Prediction Number 2:
Denver and Seattle meet in the Super Bowl. Weather plays a major factor in the game in favor of Seattle, but Peyton Manning throws a game-winning touchdown pass in the final seconds.

Result: Denver and Seattle did meet up in the Super Bowl, but it was one-sided in favor of Seattle. C grade at best.

Prediction Number 3:
The Administration will keep moving the goalposts on Obamacare and the costs of the program will become unsustainable. Our healthcare system will get a lot worse, so you better take care of yourself.

Result: Depends on who you believe, but from what I see costs are going up and few are pleased with the program. I’d give myself a B+ on this one.

Prediction Number 4:
We’ll make significant progress on immigration reform. It’s a mid-term election year and this is an issue that politicians from both sides can get behind. And with an improving economy the business community needs workers.

Result: Our politicians are even dumber than I thought they were (and I think they are pretty dumb). Really nothing happened this year but a lot of rhetoric, as usual. This one feels like an F.

Prediction Number 5:
The unemployment rate drops below 6.5%. The economy is improving and long-term unemployment benefits are drying up. GDP growth will be in the 2.5-2.7% range in 2014.

Result: Solid on the unemployment and the economy did even better than expected. Grade A-

Prediction Number 6:
Anyone born after 1980 will cease using the words “twerking” or “swagger”.

Result: Twerking seems to have run its course. Still some swagger hanging on in football. B+

Prediction Number 7:
Matthew McConaughey will win the Oscar for Best Actor for his role in Dallas Buyers Club.

Result: Well alright, alright, alright....A+

Prediction Number 8:
St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series.

Result: Cards didn’t make it. F

Prediction Number 9:
Another year will pass with no significant movement toward addressing our federal deficit problem. The stock market will peak in Q3 and begin a downward slide into 2015.

Result: Correct on the federal deficit. Missed the stock market peak. It’s still rolling. C+

Prediction Number 10:
Hope I’m wrong, but something really bad is going to happen during the Winter Olympics.

Result: Glad that I missed this one. Grade F

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Predictions for 2015

Prediction Number 1:
Green Bay and New England meet up in the Super Bowl. I’ll be rooting for the Packers, but they will end up losing to the Pats.

Prediction Number 2:
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers go to the World Series. Dodgers win in six.

Prediction Number 3:
I'm going out on limb here and predicting that oil prices do not drop below $50 barrel. We'll find out soon enough if I'm right. And I do not see it going above $70 in 2015.

Prediction Number 4:
Cheaper energy will keep the economy going. Even two months ago I didn’t see this steep of a drop in the price of oil. Put this much money in American consumer pockets and the economy will do just fine in the short run.

Prediction Number 5:
We commit more troops and resources in the battle vs ISIS.

Prediction Number 6:
There will be progress on immigration reform. I said it would happen in 2014 and was wrong. It has to happen in 2015.

Prediction Number 7:
A top ten truckload carrier will be purchased by a top five logistics (brokerage) company.

Prediction Number 8:
Someone other than Hillary Clinton will emerge as the Democratic front runner for 2016

Prediction Number 9:
A major hail storm is going to hit my place this year and I get a new roof. It’s just long overdue and that’s what happens every few years in Texas.

Prediction Number 10:
I will get my first hole in one. This is also long overdue and now that my shoulder is fixed I plan on playing a lot of golf. The odds are in my favor. Every "No" is one step closer to "Yes"…that sort of thing.

The Advent

“Isn’t there anyone who knows what Christmas is all about?”- Charlie Brown

Over the years, my wife has inspired me (…ok, forced me…) into daily readings during the Christmas Advent season. She usually buys a book with readings and a bible verse for every day of Advent. I tend to be cynical and grumpy by nature, more so during the “Holiday Season”. To me most of the Advent readings are like bad Hallmark cards, mind-numbingly banal with extra cheese. So I suffer through the process, trying to appreciate the occasional scripture readings and ignoring the puppies and snowflakes. But this year has been different. When she offered up the reading options, the list included Dietrich Bonhoeffer’s “God is in the Manger”. Having read some of his works and knowing his story, I said let’s do this one.

Bonhoeffer was a German and a Lutheran minister who resisted Hitler and the Nazis. He was eventually arrested by the Gestapo in 1943, ended up in a concentration camp and was hung in April 1945, only a few weeks before Allied forces liberated the camp. He was 39 years old. Included in this advent book are excerpts from letters he wrote while in prison. Bonhoeffer was a devout Christian who spoke out against evil when most of his countrymen and even fellow Christians remained silent. What he has to say about this world and the meaning of the Incarnation are worth reading.

If you want to know what Christmas is about, read Bonhoeffer.

“A prison cell, in which one waits, hopes - and is completely dependent on the fact that the door of freedom has to be opened from the outside, is not a bad picture of Advent”
― Dietrich Bonhoeffer, God Is in the Manger: Reflections on Advent and Christmas

We Can't Breathe

My wife said that my comments last week about the Ferguson riots were too one-sided. Actually, I thought they were rather “fair and balanced”. She criticized me for saying that Michael Brown’s shooting was “legal” and a “necessity” as far as Officer Wilson was concerned. I stand by my comments, but for the sake of peace in the household will note that it is possible that Officer Wilson might have considered taking a different approach and not letting the situation get to the point where he emptied his gun at Michael Brown. And with regard to legality, perhaps the way the case was presented to the grand jury was somewhat flawed. But, the grand jury got it right. Michael Brown’s actions on that day in Ferguson, Missouri are the primary reason that Michael Brown is dead.

But, in the spirit of being “fair and balanced” let’s turn the page and consider the Eric Garner incident. I have no idea why the grand jury in this case did not come down with some sort of indictment and send it to trial. This one is bad, really bad. Overly aggressive police, using a choke-hold on a guy who was being busted for a misdemeanor. C’mon man. And now those who want to protest police brutality, especially as directed toward “people of color”, have their martyr and their slogan.

You know it may be time that we rethink the process for handling cases where law enforcement officers are charged with using excessive force. Perhaps local prosecutors should recuse themselves from presenting such cases. The perception is that they are just too close to the police. And when the grand jury no bills one of these cases, we see the result. People are losing confidence in the system and “people of color” are more than convinced that the system will not grant them their day in court. They believe that the police can do whatever they want and get away with it. I do not think that is the way it works most of the time. But it does work that way often enough that it is not unreasonable for some people to believe that’s how it works all of the time. And if it happens to you or someone you love, that is one time too many.

And then there are the larger issues of race and profiling. Most of us, regardless of our race, age or ethnicity; are biased. We buy into the stereotypes. I’m an old white guy and when someone sees me going down the road in my four-wheel drive pickup, wearing a dirty ball cap and having not shaved in three days; they are likely to assume that I am listening to country music (or Rush Limbaugh) and probably have a gun in the truck. None of those are true. I don’t dip snuff or drink cheap beer either. And, even though I go to church most every Sunday, I don’t believe that the earth is less than 10,000 years old and the devil himself planted those fossils just to deceive us. I tend to lean to the left on issues of immigration, gay marriage and assisted suicide. I lean right on economic issues, abortion, capital punishment, global warming and dropping bombs on our enemies. I think protesters have the right to protest, but not shutdown traffic and negatively impact honest business people who are just trying to make a living. I think police have the right to use force to protect and serve. But I don’t think they have the right to use excessive force or not be judged in a court of law when it is reasonable to think they did.

So I don’t want assumptions made about me based on my age, my race, where I live, how I dress, what I drive and how I talk. And I have to continually remind myself not to do that with others. But it’s hard to be open-minded when observation and experience are telling you that doing so is dangerous, maybe even deadly. And so it goes with the police and people of color. Yes, it’s hard to be open-minded, but it’s not impossible.

Burning Down The House

I watched the riot in Ferguson, Missouri Monday night. Channel flipping between CNN, FOX and MSNBC to get the middle, right and left sides of the story. Before the riot, I watched and listened to the County Prosecutor’s announcement. I was not surprised with the grand jury’s decision. The law in Missouri is very clear as it is in most states. Right or wrong, law enforcement officers are given a lot of leeway in using deadly force. A good thing to remember, by the way, if you’re ever tempted to challenge or threaten a police officer.

As I watched cars burn and store windows being broken and looters hauling off armfuls of snacks, beer and liquor from the store where Michael Brown’s last day took a very wrong turn; I thought about a line from an old movie where a young Marlon Brando is asked “What are you rebelling against?” and his character coolly replies, “Whada ya got?”

I get the feeling that the protestors/rioters in places like Ferguson have that same attitude most of the time. What are you protesting? Whatever “you got”. And right now “they got” Michael Brown. But this is not about Michael Brown. The shooting of Michael Brown was legal. Some may even consider it justified. If I am in Officer Darren Wilson’s shoes that day, it was a necessity.

But there are a lot of folks who don’t see it that way. They see Michael Brown and, most of all, themselves as victims. Victims of racism and injustice. They get the short end of the stick when it comes to educational and employment opportunities. They are arrested and incarcerated and, yes sometimes, shot and killed disproportionately. How much of it is their own fault can be debated. That it is so, cannot. And when it comes to how they are treated by some members of law enforcement and how they “think” they are treated by most members of law enforcement; they once again get the short end of the stick; sometimes up against the side of their heads. Is this treatment fair? No. Does it makes sense? Sometimes. Have they earned it? Yes, in some ways. Are they really victims? Yes, in some ways.

How do we fix it? Indicting Darren Wilson does not fix it. Even if he had been tried and found guilty and given a death sentence it would not have fixed the problem. In this nation, we have a very complex set of social, political and economic challenges which have existed for a long, long time. They are not new, but they are becoming more unmanageable. The “victims” have found their voice and their numbers are growing. We did not get into this mess overnight and we’ll not be getting out of it overnight. We are at the point where we cannot legislate our way out and we’ve proven that we cannot “welfare” our way out. Hearts and minds must change. That takes time and a lot of help from above.

Watch out, you might get what you're after
Cool baby, strange but not a stranger
I'm an ordinary guy
Burning down the house
-lyrics from the Talking Heads song “Burning Down The House”

The One-Eyed Man

There is an old saying about “holding your nose” when you vote because all of the candidates stink. That’s pretty much my take on this week’s elections. While I am happy with the outcome, I really see it as the lesser of two evils. I hope that our leaders can get some things done, but I don’t expect it. Campaigning for 2016 has already begun and the focus of these career politicians is always on the next election. Doing their jobs is of secondary importance.

What I find most interesting is that the Number One objective for the two parties is to just find something they can agree on. It’s like a couple in a bad marriage who agree to stay together for the sake of the kids. It may be the best option at the moment, but in the long-run it seldom works out well for the couple or the kids. So our leaders point to immigration reform and rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure as two issues where they might be able to find common ground. Don’t count on it. Almost immediately the conversation on immigration has become contentious. The Republicans can’t give up too much ground without alienating the far right and the Democrats must hang on to the Hispanic vote. Any compromise weakens both parties. Hopefully, repairing and upgrading the nation’s infrastructure might get some traction if it does not get linked to other issues such as Obamacare.

The one area where I expect a lot of agreement will be National Security. Both parties know that they must look strong against Islamic extremism and Russian expansionism. While I don’t expect them to agree on how to handle either issue, I do expect them to do a lot of talking and spend a lot of money. That’s what politicians do. And neither party wants to go into 2016 looking soft.

The sad truth is that the biggest threat to our National Security has not changed and is not likely to change. That would be our Debt Crisis. We have reached unsustainable levels of debt and it is unlikely that we can grow our way out of the problem. Reducing debt by aggressive spending cuts would hurt the economy in the short run and certainly have a negative impact on certain groups of voters. Then there are the special interests and their lobbyists who have paid for protection. No politician is going to kill their golden goose. I doubt that any of the conservatives who rail about government spending would cut much of it if they actually were empowered to do so. So we’ll keep printing money and whistling in the dark until our money isn’t worth much. Our only saving grace may be that the rest of the world is more screwed up than we are.

“In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king” - Erasmus

What Are You Seeing Out There?

“What are you seeing out there?” I get this question a lot. I get it from both candidates and hiring authorities. I usually respond with a question along the lines of: “Do you mean the job market, the industry or the economy in general?” And, I usually get back “All of the above”.

So what am I seeing out there? First of all, understand that I am looking through the lens of transportation and logistics. And while it can be a pretty good indicator of overall economic activity, it is only one indicator. Secondly, the job market that I touch everyday is related to management and executive positions in the transportation, logistics and supply chain space. And that market has its own unique characteristics.

But these considerations notwithstanding, “what I am seeing” has relevance. And “what I am seeing” is a slowdown in hiring activity. It started in the summer and I thought it might be related to decision makers taking vacations and we would see things pick up in September. And we have seen a slight uptick in activity this Fall. But, it’s not enough to renew my confidence even though the number of total “job openings” across the nation has grown significantly year over year. It will be interesting to see how that growth holds up through the remainder of 2014 and into 2015. In our market, the hiring process has slowed and we are starting to see more clients “re-think” filling positions immediately. I would say that there is a growing concern about what the winter will bring and what to expect in 2015.

While freight remains strong and capacity is tight, I am starting to hear stories of downward pricing pressure in the heavy, specialized transportation segment. In my experience, this is an early indicator of an economic slowdown. Even more so, considering that overall capacity is down in that market. It will be interesting to see what happens in the flatbed and bulk sectors. To the extent those markets have benefited from the energy boom, demand there is trending down. Especially as it relates to new production. The upside is that cheaper energy will benefit other sectors of transportation and perhaps more importantly put more dollars in the consumer’s pocket. If there is one thing that may get us through the winter and 2015, it will be that cheaper energy translates to more consumer spending power.

The weakness in Europe and other foreign markets is starting to impact our economy. Of specific concern is that the manufacturing revival in the U.S. is very vulnerable to any decline in overseas demand. The political climate continues to worry and frustrate businesses while the specter of global terrorism poses a big “what if” question to every company’s strategic plan. And then there are long-term challenges related to massive government debt, a crumbling infrastructure, educating/training the next generation and figuring out how to support and care for an aging population.

Do I think the sky is falling? No. Do I think we are headed for another Great Recession? No. Do I think 2015-2016 will be up and down with more bad news than good. Yes. Will companies need exceptionally talented leaders more than ever? Yes. Will they actual hire them? Your guess is as good as mine.

Roots

As long as I can remember my dad’s side of the family has said we have “Indian blood”. Cherokee to be exact, from East Tennessee. My great-great grandfather was supposedly half-Cherokee. I have an old photo of his son, my great-grandfather, and I suppose he looks sort of Indian-ish. My grandfather and his siblings all tended to be sort of dark, with high cheek bones and a thirst for "fire water". My dad was the same. We tend to “hold our age” pretty well and “heal up fast” from wounds and injuries. So it all made sense. We had Indian blood.

Several years ago I started doing some digging and traced the Clicks back to SW Germany. The actual surname is Gluck and got changed to Click when they got to America. The first one arrived in the late 1700’s and the migration began through the Appalachians and eventually to Texas. Good stuff and I have filled in most of the Click family tree. Never could figure out exactly when the Indian got into “the woodpile”, but it was likely sometime in the early 1800’s.

A few years ago I thought about getting a DNA test just to confirm the Native American ancestry. But I figured, why waste the money? I’m German, Irish, English and Native American on my dad’s side; English, Irish and Scottish on my mother’s. A classic American mutt. But, I kept getting these emails and special deals from Ancestry.com about DNA tests. Their persistent marketing along with my curiosity finally drove me to invest in a basic DNA profile test. It’s nothing elaborate. They mail you a tube, you spit in it, shake it up to activate the chemical preservative and mail it back to them. In a couple of weeks they email you a report outlining your most likely ancestral origins. For a lot more money, they can provide further testing and drill down even deeper into your DNA. But I figured the “basic” profile would be enough.

Much to my surprise, there was no Indian in the woodpile or in the cupboard or anywhere else. And, apparently after old Ludwig Heinrich Gluck landed in America and became Lewis Henry Click, there weren’t many more Germans added to the woodpile either. I’m only 10% “Western European”. Turns out that my DNA origins are as follows: 30% Great Britain, 24% Ireland, 20% Scandinavian, 12% Iberian, 10% Western Europe, 3% Western Asia, 1% Eastern Europe.

I had never heard anything about Scandinavian ancestors, but as it turns out the Vikings spread their seed liberally throughout the British Isles, especially in what became Scotland and Ireland. So I’m guessing that is where the big dose of Scandinavian DNA got added to the recipe. The Iberian is most likely Spanish or Portuguese. Those guys explored the world and obviously plugged into the family tree somewhere along the way.

Now I am even more curious about my roots. I also need to come up with a different narrative since I’m not part Indian. You know I think I like the Viking and Conquistador options better. Or maybe my great-great-great-great granddaddy was a pirate. That would be pretty cool. And it explains so much about my family.