A Republic at Risk

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.”
― Alexis de Tocqueville


The French diplomat, Alexis de Tocqueville, wrote a lot about America and the Republic for which it stands. He had some pretty good observations. Sometimes it takes an outsider to see what those on the inside cannot see. Tocqueville’s America was the early-mid 19th century America. He saw it, warts and all. He saw a land of great promise, but with its problems. All in all a grand experiment, the outcome of which Tocqueville reckoned would depend upon the people having a strong moral foundation and sharing common principles and values. Even still, the shadow of slavery, the treatment of Native Americans, the American obsession with money and the ultimate consequences of equality were just a few of the issues Tocqueville pointed out. He admired the idea of America, but recognized that there was no guarantee of success.

So here we are in 2018 with a government that doesn’t work. An economy that sort of works, at least for now for some of us, in spite of the government. A people divided, with fundamental differences about right and wrong, how lives should be lived and the role of government in those lives. And professional politicians who take our money and use it against us. I fear Tocqueville may have been right about Congress bribing the public with the public’s money.

Something’s Gotta Give

In June 2009 there were 6.6 unemployed people for every job opening. In October 2017 there were only 1.1 unemployed people for every job opening. This number is lower than pre-Great Recession levels which got down to 1.4 in the Spring of 2007.

If you are an employer trying to hire people to work in transportation/logistics related jobs, you have a problem. A huge problem. It’s not just truck drivers, maintenance technicians and warehouse workers. High Road Partners specializes in recruiting management and executive talent for the industry. I can assure that candidate availability has never been worse. If you are looking for experienced management or executive talent with a specific industry segment background, good luck. The days of interviewing a half-dozen candidates and then narrowing it down to two or three finalists before making a decision (and, oh by the way, taking a couple of months to get through “the process”) are over. You may still go through “the process”, but it won’t be with highly-qualified candidates who meet your job specs.

And it’s not likely to get much better. Even if the economy cools off a bit. There aren’t a lot of new people entering the workforce with the goal of working in transportation/logistics. Certainly not if it involves actually managing people, especially if those people are truck drivers, dock workers or maintenance techs. That’s the hardest part of this business, so no thanks.

So what can an employer expect and how should they respond to this candidate shortage? It really comes down to keeping the employees you want to keep and hiring the new people you want to hire. There are some things you can do, including nothing, but I wouldn’t recommend that approach. Realistically you only have three options: pay more, expect less or make your company a better place to work. Most likely it’s a combination of all three. If you choose to hold the line on compensation AND expect to hire and retain top caliber employees AND treat them the same way you’ve been treating them for the past 25 years you are just in denial. It won’t work. Something’s got to give and it won’t be top quality employees whose skills and experience are in demand.

So Long Rooster, Hello Dog.

“If a dog will not come to you after having looked you in the face, you should go home and examine your conscience.”
― Woodrow Wilson

So we come to the end of another year. 2017 was the Year of the Rooster. 2018 is the Year of the Dog. The Earth Dog to be more specific. Last one was in 1958. The year of Sputnik and the invention of the microchip. 2018 should be interesting.

Now it’s time to grade my 2017 predictions and go back out on that limb for 2018.

Here’s what we said about 2017:

1. This one is easy…Alabama wins the National Championship
Close but close doesn’t count. Congrats to Clemson. Grade: C+

2. E-commerce retail sales will exceed $450 Billion
The final numbers aren’t in yet, but I think we will exceed $450 Billion. Grade: A

3. Oil prices go up a bit but remain under $60
Pretty accurate forecast. Grade: A
(Dec 27: A last gasp push..and the price briefly went over $60 before backing off...so this grade drops to C+)

4. The Cleveland Indians beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series.
The Dodgers got there but the Indians really let me down. Grade: B-

5. GDP growth at 3%
We’re going to get close, but for the year will be under 3%. Grade: B

6. Moonlight wins Academy Award for Best Movie
Yes. Grade: A

7. New England beats Dallas in the Super Bowl.
New England got there and won. Dallas, Atlanta…same difference… B+

8. Going out on a limb here, but the next Supreme Court Justice will not be a white guy.
Whiffed on this one. Grade: F

9. Significant M&A activity in the final mile delivery space
Not really. I still think it will come eventually….Grade: D

10. Trump gets a lot done in his first year and drives the mainstream media crazy.
Welp, he got some things done and he definitely drove the media crazy….Grade: B+


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Now the fun part. What will 2018 bring?

1. I am going with Alabama again to win the Natty. Just can’t bet against Saban.

2. GDP growth tails off in the second half of the year. A shortage of workers and the mid-term election cycle put a damper on the economy.

3. The Post wins Best Movie. How could it not?

4. I think oil prices just bump along at current levels, maybe down a bit.

5. China will handle N. Korea.

6. The Democrats win big in the mid-terms.

7. We finally pass an infrastructure spending bill.

8. The Mueller investigation goes nowhere, but keeps on going.

9. Big news on the UFO question.

10. The Dodgers meet the Astros again in the World Series. Dodgers win. (And, of course, New England wins the Super Bowl. Doesn’t matter who they play.)

The Christmas Bucket

I got a day away from it all this past week. No work, no TV, no internet, no phone calls, emails or text messages. Just me and my bucket and my bed.

I guess it’s just part of the holiday season and my wife’s willful participation is said holiday season. You see, she likes to shop and hang out with her friends and co-workers, meet and greet and press the flesh. In the meantime, I stay in my little bubble. The office, our house, the property, the dogs. Limited exposure, frequent hand-washing, avoiding the sneezing, coughing unwashed masses… and, as I result, I stay pretty healthy. Most of the time.

She started throwing up and out (both ends) and running a fever on Sunday. Frankly, I thought I did yeoman’s duty in the emptying of buckets, fetching clean towels, fluids and more toilet paper; administering over-the-counter medicines (which had, at best, placebic effect on the moderating of her various aches, pains and un-ending bodily excretions); and, in general, being a sympathetic and comforting caregiver, present at all times, assuring her that she was not going to die.

By late Monday my wife was still miserable, but agreed that she was not going to die. The worst was over. There was no more worse to come out and she just lay there on the couch watching Hallmark Christmas movies, the dogs around her enjoying the warm stillness of a sick person’s body.

And then I started to not feel so good. A bit of a headache and nausea. OCD that I tend to be at times, I decided to work out. We have an exercise room with a treadmill, elliptical, and some free weights. After working up a sweat on the treadmill I started to hit the weights and then had to think better of it. Went to the bathroom, the first of many trips to come over the next 24 hours. Resumed the workout, only to take another break shortly thereafter for the same purpose. Deciding that perhaps rest might be advisable, I cut the workout short, cleaned up and decided to go sit with the wife and watch Hallmark Christmas movies.

After about 15 minutes of a Hallmark Christmas movie I felt really sick. And I knew it was more than just the Hallmark Christmas movie that was making me sick. I told my wife that I needed to go lie down. And, thankfully out of the fog of her sickness she suggested that I take “the bucket”. I said, “Not necessary, just a headache and some nausea. I’ll be ok.” She rallied herself and threatened me with “Take the bucket, I am in no shape to clean up your mess…”. So I took the bucket.

Good thing I had the bucket. I got really sick. Good thing it’s a big bucket. Seriously, I got really sick. And for the next 24 hours: no work, no TV, no internet, no phone calls, emails or text messages. If I had not been so sick, it would have been a great vacation. Just me and my bucket and my bed. And my dogs. They abandoned my wife and crawled up around me; now a sicker, warmer body I suppose.

Apparently this bug is making the rounds. With the holiday season upon us this is going to get worse before it gets better. Schools around here are closing. Too many sick kids. Emergency rooms are filling up with people who think they are dying (they are not…well…maybe some will). Someone suggested that perhaps this is just God’s way of slowing us down during the holidays and forcing us to take time for reflection and meditation. I don’t think so. If anything, I think it’s the Devil delivering his version of Christmas cheer to one and all. Forget the Christmas wish list. Just keep a bucket close by.

Jerks and Taxes

Those of you who are old enough or just Steve Martin fans might remember his movie, “The Jerk”. It was a stupid, but in my opinion, very funny movie. In one scene Steve Martin’s character, Navin R. Johnson, is totally excited when the new phone book is delivered (yes, phone books used to be a thing). He jumps around yelling “The new phone book's here! The new phone book's here! ….”. And then finds his name in the phone book and proudly points to it commenting that he is now somebody. Spoiler alert, a nut job also randomly finds his name in the phone book and…well…watch the movie.

The is sort of how I feel about the new tax plan. The jerks on the right are excited about their new tax plan and the jerks on the left hate it because they are bound and determined to hate anything the right wants to do. So with Republican majorities the Senate passed their version and the House passed their version. We don’t know exactly what the final version will look like, but we have a pretty good idea. Maybe it’s better than what we have now. There will be winners and losers, but “tax reform” it is not. Not even close.

The monster that is our tax code scares the hell out of politicians and even most economists aren’t really sure what to do about it. They have their ideal models and how things should be assuming this, that and the other. But, considering where we are and how money is earned, spent, saved, invested, taxed and given away...how much do they rock that boat and who wants to do the rocking?

For me the elephant in the room remains government spending and the way we just keep adding to the national debt. The “new tax plan”, whatever its final version, will not fix this problem. As I understand it, they are betting on GDP growth plus they have baked in some “adjustments” in the future which will increase taxes for certain groups. So over time we begin to chip away at the debt. That’s just plain bad management. But, if you can print your own money, why not kick the can down the road? And if getting re-elected is more important than doing the right and responsible thing, why not kick the can down the road?

The New Tax Plan is here! The New Tax Plan is here! And the Jerks are still in charge.

“Page 73 - Johnson, Navin R.! I'm somebody now! Millions of people look at this book every day! This is the kind of spontaneous publicity - your name in print - that makes people. I'm in print! Things are going to start happening to me now.” - Steve Martin’s character from the movie The Jerk.

Mothers, Wives, Daughters and Sisters

Financial and family circumstances forced my Mother to get a job when I six years old. This was way back in the Leave It To Beaver days when more women stayed home than worked. It was the Mad Men era as well. Women often got hired based on how they looked and how they dressed. My Mother was a good-looking woman. She got a job as a secretary with a small real estate company in Fort Worth. It was a good place to work and for the most part they treated her right. Almost like family. But the owner’s son, only a year or two younger than my Mother, was always flirting and teasing her. One of the male real estate sales agents, a retired air force officer, also tended to say and do a lot of things that crossed the line. My mother had a thick skin and was no prude, but I know it eventually got to her. She even complained to my Dad and then had to spend the next few years convincing him not to go down to the office and kick some ass. But, I think the men in her office knew that the threat was there. After my Dad died unexpectedly in a construction accident, she decided to change jobs and went to work in customer service for a chemical company. Is it any wonder?

My first wife worked in a bank. She was young and attractive and she was sexually harassed. Even to the point of being cornered in an office by her boss, a young VP only a few years older than me. She fended him off. This was in a day and time when women didn’t go to HR or complain. “He said-she said” tended to always fall in favor of “He”. But when she finally told me about it, I made a point to drop by the bank and introduce myself to this VP. I was sort of an intimidating looking guy back in those days, 6-2, 225, mostly muscle and bone. I remember smiling, shaking his hand, squeezing it very tight and saying in a whispered growl, “My wife has told me a lot about you. I’d appreciate it if you kept your hands to yourself.” He gulped, adjusted his glasses and mumbled something unintelligible. Not long after that episode, she started getting bad reviews, minimal raises and crappy work assignments. But, eventually things changed. New ownership came in and this jerk along with some other jerks, went off and started up their own bank. Things got better for my wife and the jerks eventually went broke.

My wife now (and forevermore) has worked off and on throughout our marriage. She’s tough as nails and can pretty much take it and give it back. She would have made a great truck stop waitress. But she too has been the object of sexual harassment. Like a lot of women, I think she just accepts it as coming with the territory and has learned not to tell me about it. And, she’s older now. So most of the harassment is coming from real old guys which she finds mostly harmless and amusing. And regardless of their age, her come back is usually along the lines of “You couldn’t handle it” or “Let me check with my husband, I think he’s at the gun range right now.”

I share these stories to make the point that I have witnessed the anger and pain that comes when men harass women in the work place. When men who have power and can impact a woman’s career say and do things that suggest a woman should just go along in order to get along, it’s plain wrong. Always has been, always will be. And even though I went out of my way not to be that guy, I look back at times in my career when I said things to women that probably made them uncomfortable or at least question my motives. And for that, I am truly sorry and apologize.

With all of the sexual harassment revelations, accusations and confessions coming out of entertainment and political circles, a lot of us are thinking back, wondering if or regretting that a comment or a look made a woman feel uneasy or uncomfortable or objectified. At some point, I do think “correctness” in this area is likely to go the way of all “PC” issues…to the extreme. Can you compliment a woman on her appearance? I’d be afraid to say anything today. Can you take a second, perhaps long look at woman? I wouldn’t today. Would you risk being alone in an office or even out on a business lunch with a woman? You may have to as part of your job, but be careful. However, this is the price we pay for years of bad behavior. Eventually we’ll strike a balance and it will be a balance set by those who have been the victims… our Mothers, our Wives, our Daughters, our Sisters.



“I am not your dog that you whistle for; I’m not a stray animal you call over, and I am not, I never have been, nor will I ever be, your “baby”!”
― Joy Jennings, I'm Not Your "Baby": An Australian woman's tortured life of sexual harassment and assault.

Veterans Day

We come to Veterans Day a nation divided. Blue and Red. Left and right. But, hopefully we can agree when it comes to honoring and respecting our veterans. I posted this poem several years ago. I wrote it after attending a local event honoring wounded veterans. It was a moving and emotional event which I will never forget.

Purple Hearts and Roses

They gathered at the Methodist Church.
To honor and read those names.
It is the Heart that brings them together
The Heart, it is all that remains.
.
They wear their wars on their faces.
Every battle, some won and some lost.
These people know the truth about fighting,
For they have paid the costs.

The greatest generation sits up front.
Old men, some waiting to die.
Fears once felt again remembered,
Yet courage still fills their eyes.

They read the names of the departed.
And place a rose for the fallen Heart.
Each drop of blood is sacred
Each rose sets them apart.

They play “Taps” at the Methodist Church.
A salute to the dead and the dying.
Purple Hearts stand together in silence
With roses these Hearts are crying.