Wind in The Sails

 

Transportation and logistics service providers are enjoying an unprecedented freight bonanza.  Around the globe there is more stuff to be moved than there is capacity to move it.  And with the law of supply and demand still alive and well, rates have gone up…way up.  Up to rate levels that could not have been imagined a couple of years ago.  

To be sure costs have gone up as well.  For example, on as percentage basis truck driver pay has gone up even more than freight rates.  Other costs are up as well, but overall freight rates have shot up to levels where even the most inefficient, marginal service providers are now making money. If you can turn the lights on and find a way to move freight, you should be making money these days.

But why is it that some companies are doing so much better than others?  You may say, well they were more profitable before the big freight bonanza so it just stands to reason.  Fair enough.  But how does one explain the sizeable differences in profit improvement among carriers.  In fact, one would think that those companies that were doing better before the freight bonanza had less room for improvement than the laggards who were always saying if we just had more freight, if we could just get the rates up.

It's been said that “a rising tide lifts all boats”.  But perhaps a better analogy for this freight bonanza would be that “a strong wind fills all sails”.  And guess what, the better boats with the better sailors separate themselves even further from the pack.  Today we may not truly know just how well the better carriers are performing.  I promise you that their executives are using this opportunity to build up reserves, expense rather than capitalize wherever possible and pack bags throughout their financials.  They know that this bonanza won’t last forever and they certainly don’t want to report results they know they can not come close to matching in the future.  Yet still, it’s clear that some are reaping a bigger harvest than others.

My guess is that the real numbers would show that the better carriers’ profitability has improved at least twice as much as the average carriers and perhaps three or four times more than those who were losing money before the bonanza.  

More volume and higher prices are certainly better than low volume and low prices.  And more business and better prices can cover a multitude of problems.   But in the end, the best operating companies do even better in times like these.  Those who are just along for the ride may enjoy it for now, but what they do with this opportunity will determine if they survive when the bonanza is over and the tailwinds are gone.

2021...The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

 

Up until last year, I had been making predictions for the New Year.  Covid turned the world upside down in 2020 and there was no way I could even begin to imagine what 2021 might look like.  Now in late December 2021, it’s still an upside-down crazy world and who knows what 2022 will bring.  Even though I made no predictions about 2021, I thought it might be fun to look back on the year.  What was Good, what was Bad and what was just plain Ugly?  Some of these are personal and some are ripped from the headlines.  It’s not an exhaustive, all-inclusive list and I’m sure there are some major events that just didn’t resonate all that much with me.  So here is my own personal list of The Good, The Bad and The Ugly for 2021.  I’ll start with the Ugly and work my way up to the Good. 

 

The Ugly   

 

It doesn’t get much uglier than the January 6 assault on The United States Capitol.  I know, I know…blue state authorities and the main-stream media looked the other way or downplayed dozens of protests that turned into major riots and did far more damage than was done at the Capitol on January 6^th.  But invading the Capitol building crossed the line.  It was a dark day in America’s history and showed that the extremists on the right are just as crazy as those on the left.  Ugly.

 

The battle being fought over what gets taught in our public schools got uglier in 2021.  Some of the ugliest encounters occurred at school board meetings where angry parents protested the way in which Critical Race Theory (CRT) was being presented to their children.  Interestingly, some of the most vocal critics of CRT were parents of color who feared that this ideology of itself was racist and only made things worse.  This debate is far from over and will be a major hot spot in the mid-term elections.

 

Crime, violent crime, is spiraling out of control; especially in cities and states where ultra-progressive leadership has endorsed such things as “defunding” police departments.  The disconnect between many of these communities and law enforcement has only made the urban jungle more dangerous, deadly and ugly.

 

And then there is The Border.  It’s never been uglier and now citizen militias are being called in to help control the invasion.  To be clear, we need immigrants.  We have a serious labor shortage in this country.  I welcome anyone who is willing and able to work.  But, it has to be managed and at this point our government has been an epic fail when it comes to managing the border crisis.

 

And my final big ugly is the Supply Chain.  The global economy has been tiptoeing along the precipice of a supply chain failure for years.  When purchasing, manufacturing, inventories and supply chain channels are all being simultaneously coordinated to minimize costs something was bound to give.  Corporations may say they want to operate better, faster and cheaper.  But what they really mean is good enough, fast enough and at the lowest possible costs.  And this truly is the lane where free markets operate best.  Most of us benefit from the global competition to provide us with the stuff we want, when we want it and at a price we are willing to pay.   But the pressure to do that and still make a profit doesn’t leave much room for error.  Increase demand for goods vs services;  give people more money for doing nothing; have a container ship go sideways in the Suez canal blocking a vital link in the chain; finally reach the tipping point where there are no longer enough truck drivers to move the freight, disrupt the inflow of materials and supplies required to make stuff and then disrupt the outflow of finished products to the marketplace; mix and stir in the shadow of a global pandemic and you pretty much end up with what we have today:  higher prices, shortages and plenty of finger-pointing.

The Bad.

The Great February Freeze in Texas was quite an event and it was bad.  Our family was very fortunate. We never lost power and did not experience the devastation that impacted so many people.  My sense is that our power grid is still not up to handling extreme weather and the ultimate test will come one of these summers when it gets crazy hot for days and weeks on end.  We haven’t had one of those in a long time and there are now a whole lot more people and places in Texas to keep cool than there used to be.

 

And then we have a drought this fall.  After a cool wet Spring and Summer, it warmed up and dried out and has stayed that way for months.  With the forecast for Winter looking warm and dry, Texas and Oklahoma are primed for some major wildfires.  Those are always bad.

 

Another “bad” for yet another year was network television.  The programming on NBC, ABC. CBS and FOX is laughingly bad.  And that’s not even counting the News which is in another category beyond bad.  I don’t see how their business models are sustainable and the programming is a joke, a bad joke.

 

Inflation has gotten bad and may get worse.  Between supply chain issues, labor shortages and some misguided energy policies;  the cost of living has gone up significantly.   And it’s particularly tough on lower and middle income folks.  When energy and food costs go up it takes a bigger bite proportionately out of their incomes.  This will be another key factor in the mid-term elections.

 

And one cannot ignore just how bad the Biden-Harris administration has been.  I am a not a hardcore Trumper, but I did vote for him because the Democrats have gone off the rails.   Nevertheless, after Biden won I thought maybe it would be ok or at least not terrible.  The bar was set pretty low for Biden and he hasn’t come close to getting over it.  And VP Harris is just a train-wreck.  

 

Then there was and is Covid.  Delta, now Omnicron and Delta.  It’s bad and likely to get worse for a while before it turns around.  What’s even worse is that it has become just one more divisive issue in a country that is already way too divided.

 

The Good. (These are certainly more personal and won’t mean as much to most folks.)

 

Rain and cool weather.  We had a wet, cool Spring and early summer.  If you’ve lived in Texas a long time, you realize what a blessing that can be.  We dug a new pond on our place right before the big freeze and for a while it was mostly empty.  And then it rained and rained and rained some more.  The pond filled up, surrounded by green grass and wildflowers.  It was a beautiful thing.

 

It was good that my bees survived the great freeze.  Somehow they hunkered down, ate their honey and lived.  Then we had a huge honey harvest later in the year.  Bees are amazing.

 

My  English Springer Spaniel, Barney, was a year old this summer and is finally settling in to being a member of the family.  I need to take some time and train him because he’s really smart.  We walk each other through the fields before sundown and he lays across my lap every night watching television.  Barney is a fan of Masterpiece Theater and most anything on Britbox.   Scenes of the English countryside fascinate him.  And he loves classical music.  He thinks it is his mission in life to turn me into a proper English gentleman.  He will eventually figure out that it’s way too late for that.

 

Business was good.  High Road Partners had a great 2021 and my wife’s real estate business continues to grow.  She had an exceptional year and loves what’s she’s doing.

 

We were both healthy in 2021.  And that’s a very good thing.  We have been vaccinated and recently got the booster shots.  For those who choose not to get vaccinated, that’s their choice.  I expect the vaccine is not 100% safe and we know it’s not 100% effective.  But I’ll take my chances with the vaccine rather than take on Covid unvaccinated.  On balance, the vaccines are a good thing…and so is freedom…up to a point.  I’ll just leave that there.

 

And I’ll wrap this up with the Greatest Good of all, Jesus Christ.  My faith journey has always felt like one step forward, two steps back.  But the older I get, the more I realize that it’s not my steps but His steps that really matter.  By His grace I am starting to see His steps more clearly now.  And I know that I am forgiven for the bad ones I’ve taken on my own.  We never find peace within ourselves or with others until we find peace with God.  

May you find Peace in 2022.

Returning Shoes

 

Christmas is a season for giving, receiving and then returning gifts.  But, before you try to return a gift this season, make sure it’s actually been shipped.  Even if you have it in your possession, it doesn’t count if “the system” says it hasn’t been shipped and received.

Sounds crazy, but my wife just experienced such a conundrum.  I’ll not provide the name of the retailer, but here’s a hint:  they are a major retailer and they used to be known as having the most lenient return policy in the industry.  That changed a few years ago after years of abuse by customers and increasing pressure on profit margins.  But the culture has always been centered around customer service.

 

My wife and I are now at a stage in life where we pretty much tell the other one what we want for Christmas.  There are rarely any surprises.  But in an effort to upgrade my wardrobe to something less Homer Simpson-ish, my wife bought some stylish slacks and shoes for me.  However, she began to second guess her selections.  Since there are no surprises at Christmas anymore, she confessed to purchasing the unrequested gifts and asked me to take a look BEFORE she wrapped them and put them under the tree.  She just didn’t want me to be disappointed and she figured it would be easier to exchange them sooner rather than later.  As if turned out one pair of shoes just didn’t fit right.  They were labeled the right size, but were way too tight.  No problem.  She needed to go into the city the next day and would exchange them for something else. Fair enough.

 

When she arrived at the retailer with the outstanding reputation for customer service, the salesperson politely took the shoes back and proceeded to process the return.  After spending some time and trying to figure out what was going on, the poor sales guy looked up at my wife and apologized, saying that he could not take the shoes back because their system said they had not shipped yet.  Or more accurately, they had not received the shoes yet.  His system didn’t say where they were, but the information he had showed they had not been received by his company.  He speculated that they were probably sitting out in a container off the California coast waiting to be unloaded.

 

This was reminiscent of some Monty Python skit.  My wife reminded him that he had the shoes in hand along with the receipt of purchase.  Unable to deny the reality of that, the poor sales guy called his manager for help.  This is the week before Christmas, the store is short-handed and like everyone else there the manager is tired, over-worked and underpaid.  She pecks on a few keys and says matter-of-factly that there is nothing they can do.  “The System” will not allow them let process the return until the shoes have been shipped and received.

 

My wife is a nice person and having worked in retail, waited tables and assorted other jobs in her youth she has an appreciation for what this manager and salesperson were going through during the Christmas rush.  But if it had been me, I would have probably started talking in loud voice, loud enough so that any customer within 200 feet could hear me.  Saying something along the lines of: “So even though I have given you the receipt and the item I purchased just the other day, you will not give me a refund, exchange it or even give me a store credit of some sort. I just want to understand this and make sure I have this right before I call the local news station.” I am confident that they would have come up a solution of some sort…..or maybe just called security. 

 

But my wife, bless her heart, she just ask them to notify her when the system said they had the product. The next day, she got the notification.  So now it’s OK to take it back.  I may go with her just in case they say there’s been some mistake and they still cannot process the return.  I just want to be there when she starts peeling the paint off the walls.  When her nice goes away, it’s major fireworks.

 

Technology is wonderful thing.  For the most part it has made our lives easier and serves us. But, too often, we end up serving technology, becoming slaves to digital masters that control access, entry and answers. There is the old question about if a tree falls in the woods and no one is there to hear it, does it make a noise?  The answer is, of course, yes. But in today’s world, even if someone is there to hear it, unless they recorded it, the noise question would still be up for debate.

“The real problem is not whether machines think, but whether men do.” – B.F. Skinner

Thanksgiving in the Midst of Brokenness

 

Over the past week I’ve received and issued a lot of wishes for a “Happy Thanksgiving”. It’s just what people do this time of year. If they are connected to the transportation industry as I am, they may wish you a “Safe and Happy Thanksgiving”.   Some who never miss an opportunity to express their faith, or just want to assure you or themselves that they actually have faith, will wish you a Blessed Thanksgiving.  

 

Most of us would gladly sign up for a Blessed Thanksgiving or just a Blessed Day anytime we can get it.  But be careful what you wish for. In Matthew’s Gospel he reports what Jesus said about being blessed.  Jesus says we are blessed when we are poor in spirit, when we mourn, are meek, hunger and thirst for righteousness, are merciful, pure in heart, peacemakers and when we are persecuted for righteousness’ sake.

 

But the world equates being blessed with being happy.  And being happy means having our physical and emotional needs and desires satisfied.  So don’t be sad, find your happy place.  Dry your eyes, don’t cry. You be you.  Be loud, be proud.  No justice, no peace.  Follow your heart as long as you are on the right side of the culture war.  And persecution only matters if it’s based on race, ethnicity, gender, physical appearance, political affiliation or socio-economic status.

 

We live in a broken world turned upside down. We are most thankful for those things which make us feel good and are primarily related to pleasure and comfort. We think more about material blessings than we do about spiritual blessings. We tend to even measure our spiritual well-being in terms of our material blessings. Look how much stuff I possess. I must be doing more things right than wrong, so the Lord is blessing me with lots of good stuff. I better give thanks…and really mean it. This is a great life. And when life is not so great, we petition God to fix it…and maybe even forgive us now and then. We just want to get back to having a great life now.

 

No, that’s not the promise. It’s possible. But it’s not promised and it’s not earned. In the end, it’s really not even all that important. And it may even be a hindrance. It’s not wrong to thank God for material blessings. But these are all temporary. The material world is not only broken but it is dying. Seek ye first the kingdom of heaven. And be thankful when you find it.

 

Thanksgiving ought to be a time for reflection and repentance. A time for commitment to use whatever God has given us for his glory and his purposes, not just for our own personal pleasure. But most of us will be more committed to finding the perfect Christmas gift or planning the best party or just enjoying the holiday season. It’s what people are inclined to do in the midst of brokenness.

"And the world is passing away along with its desires, but whoever does the will of God abides forever." - 1 John 2:17

The Hand You Are Dealt

 

Since humans began to think and reason, they have tried to gain more control over their lives.  Whether you believe this came about as a result of an evolutionary process or the actions of a higher power, human beings are unique life forms.  We have the capacity to change ourselves and our environment, at least up to a point. 

 

The big questions are what do we change, how do we change and how much can we change?  Philosophers and theologians have grappled with these questions for millennia.  Since the Enlightenment, scientists and humanists have joined them in the search for answers.  And, indeed they have discovered some answers. Today we know quite a bit about human behavior.  We know that genes and body chemistry greatly determine who we are as well as what, how and how much we can change.  We have more understanding about the impact of our environment in determining who we are and what we are capable of becoming.  

 

Yet there remains significant disagreement with regard to exactly “what” we can change, “how” we can change and “how much” we can change.  How much of our life is determined?  To what extent are we destined to live a certain life?  Do we have free will and, if so, to what extent?  For  theologians the disagreements revolve around God’s sovereignty vs human free will.  For the scientists and humanists it’s a question of physics, biology and environment vs free will.

 

So do we have free will and, if so, to what extent does it matter?  As a Christian, I believe that God is the creator of all that exists and I believe that he is indeed sovereign.  In the end, His Will shall be done.  But, I also believe that he gave human beings a measure of free will.   Certainly enough to make us accountable for where we will spend eternity.  Yet I must admit that my salvation is not of my own doing.  It is by God’s grace, a gift which I do not merit.  But while it may not be of my "doing"; is it of my "choosing"?

 

Still there are those “strings” that pull us forward or hold us back.  Ties that bind and ties that are loose.  Our lives are very much a product of our genes and the choices of our ancestors whose lives were also a product of their genes and those who went before them.  We are shaped not only by who and what we are but also by what we experience.   We don’t pick our parents, where we are born or how we grow up. If as a child you were well-loved and well-fed, that was not of your doing...or choosing. 

If you have a good education, how much credit do you deserve?  You might argue that you studied, you applied yourself, you earned it.  But where did the educational opportunity come from?  Why do you have the ability and the will to study and learn?  Why do some seize the opportunity and others do not?

 

For the Christian who has come to the faith and found salvation, how and why did that happen? And why does it happen for some and not others?  Does God speak to everyone in the same voice? Why do some hear and others do not? Why are some given so many opportunities to respond and others are not?  And why does anyone respond at all? 

 

How much free will do we really have?  It’s a question that remains unanswered and may very well be unanswerable.  We may agree that in this life we must play the cards we are dealt?  But we’ll never fully know why we were dealt a particular hand.   And how we ultimately play those cards is a mystery.  Do we play as we choose or are the plays chosen for us?  

"For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know in part; but then shall I know even as I am known." - 1 Corinthians 13:12

Still A Game And More

These days I find myself enjoying high school football much more than pro or college.  The pro game has always been about the money, but when you see the best playing any sport it can be worth watching.  Yet I seldom watch a game in real time anymore, preferring to record and just fast forward through most of it.

 

I started to lose interest in the Cowboys when Jerry Jones kicked Tom Landry to the curb.  It was time for Tom to hang it up, but it should have been handled better.  When Jones decided he could do it all and didn’t need Jimmy Johnson around, that pretty much finished the Cowboys for me.  I’ve always liked Green Bay and Pittsburgh.  Just the fans, the tradition; it feels like it means so much to everyone connected in some way to those teams.  I’ve always liked the Kansas City Chiefs, even going back to the old days when they were the Dallas Texans (yes, I am that old…).  The Hunt family is a class act and now they have Patrick Mahomes at QB.  He’s about the only great thing that’s come out of Texas Tech football since the good ol’ boys ran off Mike Leach.  So I do like watching Mahomes and the Chiefs.  But that’s about it for me and pro football.

 

Big money has ruined the college game.  It’s always been dirty and never really been about student-athletes.  But at least we could pretend it was somehow amateur; played for the love of the sport, one’s school and fellow students; grateful alumni and adoring fans. Traditions, tail-gating, rivalries, memories, beautiful autumn days when your team won and nothing else mattered at that moment. But now, all of that is officially gone.  Drowned beneath multi-million dollar coaching contracts, transfer portals, conference realignment, NIL deals for the players and its own success as reality television entertainment.

 

So last Friday night, I went to a local high school football game. Texas high school football is a big deal and produces players for college programs all over the nation.  This game was 5A Div II and that’s a pretty good brand of football, just a step behind 5A Div I and a larger step behind the big 6A schools.  But it’s still top-notch football.  The kids played hard and seemed to genuinely care about their teammates and even their opponents.  The coaches were hands on, encouraging the players, concerned about those who got injured, whether their own or the other team’s.  The fans were enthusiastic but mostly well-behaved.  The players; black, white and brown; all stood at attention when the national anthem was played.  It was a closely contested game and our team won on a late touchdown and then a fourth down stop to end the game.  Winning made it better, but it would have been a great night even if the other team had won.  The players, the coaches, the fans, the bands, the cheerleaders, the drill teams; everyone was involved; and the communities were all made better by what went on that night. 

 

And that sort of thing goes on all across this nation on Friday nights.  Yes, I know that players get hurt, not everyone wins and sometimes it’s just not a good experience for some folks.  Human beings have a way of messing up anything if you give them enough time and the motivation to do so.  Yet still there remains something of value when young people get involved in sports; whether on the field, in the band, on the sidelines or in the stands.  We can only hope and pray (silently, of course) that such events survive the current tides of cultural change.

"I remember in September when the final stumps were drawn

And the shouts of crowds now silent when the boisterous cheer had gone.

Let us O Lord above us remember simple things

When all are dead to love us...Oh, the Captains and the Kings."

- Brendan Behan

 

No Flowers In The Field

 

My dog saw it first.  Barney is an English Springer Spaniel and he doesn’t miss much unless it’s kennel time when he seems to have a hearing problem.  There in the freshly mowed field was a pair of wings, standing upright like flowers.  But it’s August in Texas and, other than sunflowers, there are no flowers in the fields around here.

 

Barney usually sniffs and then chews on most things he finds in the field.  But, this time he just stood there, looking at the tiny wings and then looking back at me for an explanation.  As I got closer, I realized that he had found a butterfly.  An exceptionally beautiful one at that.  It appeared to have only recently nose-dived to earth finding its final resting place in an almost perfect vertical pose, wings fully extended and intact.  Even the butterfly’s body appeared to be unharmed.  I started to pick it up for further examination, but decided such an artful passing need only be memorialized in a photo. 

 

As Barney and I walked on I had to wonder what happened to this butterfly.  They only live for a few weeks. Had its time come?  Did it just run out of fuel and crash?  Or did it fall victim to an angry wasp or some mischievous dragonfly.  Was it the ruthless, deadly herbicide I use to keep weeds and grass out of the fence row?  Or did it just fly to close to the sun?  For some reason it has remained in my thoughts, this dead butterfly suspended at the end of a perfect dive.

 

The next day we walked past the same place and it was still there, but one wing had collapsed giving way to the wind and gravity.  Another day later and the butterfly’s remains appeared to be long gone. But Barney was intent on finding a trace and there some twelve feet away from the crash site was a piece of the wing, soon to become dust, yet still shining in the late evening sun.  

 

Since that day, I have looked in vain for a butterfly as beautiful as that one.  Perhaps next spring there will be flowers in the field and another butterfly even more beautiful will appear….at least for a few days.